Why The Mavs' 3-Point Shooting Could Determine How Far They Go

The Mavericks spent the offseason adding size, length and defensive versatility. They did not meaningfully improve their shooting and 12 games into the season, the numbers look almost identical to those of the team that won 26 games last year.

Dallas is shooting 33.6 percent from 3-point range this season. Last season, it shot 34.4 percent. For all the roster turnover, the one thing that has not changed is the one thing that decides most games in the modern NBA.

Thursday night in Minneapolis made that point about as clearly as possible.

READ MORE: Mavs Get 'Punched' As Cooper Flagg Is Held to 12 Points in Loss

The Timberwolves hit 15 3-pointers at roughly 47 percent and buried Dallas 133-94, the most lopsided loss of the Mavericks' season and Minnesota's seventh straight win in the series. LaMelo Ball went 6-of-10 from deep and Bones Hyland came off the bench to shoot 5-of-6. The two combined for 11 of Minnesota's 15 makes.

Dallas went 13-of-48 from 3-point range, a 27.1 percent mark.

The correlation holds across the season. Dallas is 5-2 when shooting 35 percent or better from 3-point range and 2-3 when shooting below that mark. That is about as direct a relationship between one number and winning as a team can have.

That was the whole story Thursday and arguably the biggest factor limiting this team's ceiling. Minnesota led by as many as 44 points while shooting 57.8 percent from the field and scoring 74 points in the paint. The Mavericks never had a counterpunch available because they do not have one.

Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving went a combined 9-of-23 against Minnesota's pressure. That is what happens when defenses can load up on two players without fearing anyone else.

There are reasons to think the percentage will climb from here.

Irving has been the one consistent threat, knocking down 2.8 3-pointers per game while carrying the heaviest volume on the roster. P.J. Washington has quietly improved to 35.1 percent, up from 32.5 percent last season. Zaccharie Risacher is at 29.5 percent but shot 36.8 percent with Atlanta a year ago. Max Christie is off to a slow start at 26.3 percent after last season's career-high 40.4 percent. 

READ MORE: Mavs Blown Out By Timerwolves As Win Streak Ends, Road Stretch Begins

Flagg is the most important variable. He is shooting 30 percent from deep this season after finishing below 30 percent as a rookie, but he has heated up recently, going 7-of-13 from 3-point range over his last three games.

None of this means the season is doomed. Dallas sits at 7-5 and has won games with defense, offensive rebounding and late-game execution, all of which are sustainable in the long term. The potential has shown up in flashes, too. Dallas shot 41.2 percent from 3-point range in both games against Indiana and 40 percent against Brooklyn. The Mavericks won all three.