Trailing 3-0, Cleveland leans on "analytical wins" to justify a miracle comeback. But as the Knicks loom, the Cavs must prioritize actual results over theoretical scoring potential.
Expecting any professional coach or player to lack confidence while in the midst of a deep postseason run would be unreasonable.
That’s why Cleveland Cavaliers head coach Kenny Atkinson’s confidence that his team can bounce back down 3-0 to the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals isn’t surprising.
However, the content of his belief in the team appears to be coming from a not-so-reliable place.
For more on the Cavaliers’ fight to stay alive in their pursuit of an NBA Finals appearance, Cavs Roundtable writer Tommy Wild has an in-depth look at the history of teams trailing 3-0 in an NBA playoff series.
Atkinson believes that the Cavs have, “analytically,” won two of the three series games thus far. With that, he has confidence that his team can bounce back from the three-game deficit like no team in history has before them.
The viewpoint is simple. While the scoreboard doesn’t reflect well for the Cavs, who haven’t had much go their way against New York, the expectations based on other areas of production lead to a more palatable set of performances.
Some are even estimated as wins based on expected points scored, but the Cavs have performed below the expectation while the Knicks have performance well above.
Therein lies the problem with this line of thinking. It forces one to eschew factual outcomes and results in favor of potential and process.
It’s a fine motivation tactic. It could even be seen as good leadership, displaying a never-give-up attitude. But this is not one likely the approach that will begin turning the tide in historic fashion.
Expected scoring doesn’t dictate who wins and loses games. Expected wins don’t decide playoff series. The game’s actual results determine wins, losses, advancements and eliminations.
One game away from being swept in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavaliers are much better off focusing on their reality than their potential if the team hopes to do what no NBA club has ever done in the league’s history.
If analytical wins are leading them into a 3-0 crater with a trip to the Finals on the line, it may be time to focus in actual wins before it’s too late.
