David Banks-Imagn Images
May 29, 2026 4:25 AM
Flattened lottery odds and strict back-to-back restrictions now penalize losing on purpose, forcing bottom-dwellers to rethink their rebuild strategies as the league aggressively targets systemic tanking.
The NBA delivered a direct hit to one of its biggest problems on Thursday with the Board of Governors voting overwhelmingly (29-1) in favor of instituting anti-tanking changes to the league's draft lottery.
The vote increased the number of teams in the lottery from 14 to 16 and also redistributed the odds to lessen the chance to earn the No. 1 overall selection of the draft for the three worst teams.
The rule change makes it so that the bottom three teams in win-loss records to finish the season go from having the best odds to capture the draft's top pick (14.0%) to now having the same odds as the No. 10 and No. 9 seeds in each conference (5.4%).
One of the teams that could have been massively impacted by this change is the Utah Jazz. Jazz Roundtable writer Kyle Fox broke down why Utah's rebuild is beginning at the perfect time, being one of the beneficiaries of the defunct odds system.
Here is a look at each lottery team's new odds as compared to their old chances.
- Worst to Third-Worst Records: From 14.0% to 5.4%
- Fourth-Worst: From 12.5% to 8.1%
- Fifth-Worst: From 10.5% to 8.1%
- Sixth-Worst: From 9% to 8.1%
- Seventh-Worst: From 7.5% to 8.1%
- Eighth-Worst: From 6% to 8.1%
- Ninth-Worst: From 4.5% to 8.1%
- Tenth-Worst: From 3% to 8.1%
- 10-seed (East): 5.4%
- 10-seed (West): 5.4%
- 9-seed (East): 5.4%
- 9-seed (West): 5.4%
- 7-8 Play-in Loser (East): 2.7%
- 7-8 Play-in Loser (West): 2.7%
The flattened odds make it more valuable to finish with the seventh-worst record better than the absolute worst, meanwhile finishing tenth-worst has never been as valuable.
So now that this change is made, what's to stop teams from jostling for being the fourth-worst team instead? The Board thought of that, too.
Per ESPN's Shams Charania, some additional parameters have been set. No team may earn the No. 1 overall pick in back-to-back years and no team may have a top-five selection in three consecutive seasons.
It's now the most aggressive anti-tanking measure in professional sports with the Memphis Grizzlies etched into history as the only team to oppose the so-called "3-2-1" draft format, which took months of adjustments and crafting.
This year's top selection is owned by the team that had the worst record in the NBA last year, the Washington Wizards. The already rare occurrence is now rarer than ever.
The new format will go into effect next season with a plan to utilize it through "at least" 2029.
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