Denver still has Nikola Jokic, but a thinner roster and a loaded West point to a strong season more than a title run.
The betting line for the Denver Nuggets this season was set at 49.5 wins, which is how the betting world sees this team heading into media day.
It is a good number, but it is not the number of a team most people expect to win it all.
Denver has center Nikola Jokic, head coach David Adelman and a core that knows how to win, but the roster around them got thinner this summer.
Where Last Season Left Them
The Nuggets went 54-28 last season and finished third in the West, but Minnesota knocked them out in six games in the first round, and injuries played a big part in that.
Forward Aaron Gordon played just 36 games after two long absences with hamstring strains, and team president Josh Kroenke said in May that if the team had stayed healthy, "this could be a 60-to-65-win team," according to The Associated Press.
That may have been true then, but the roster has changed since.
Forward Peyton Watson went to Cleveland in a sign-and-trade, guard Tim Hardaway Jr. left for Miami and guard Bruce Brown is gone too.
Denver added forward DeMar DeRozan on a one-year deal and forward Marvin Bagley III on a veteran minimum deal, and the updated depth chart shows a bench that leans on veterans.
What the Odds Say
The Ringer ranked the Nuggets eighth in its preseason power rankings, and USA Today had them ninth.
Those numbers feel about right, because Denver is a very good team, but the top of the West has two teams that look a step ahead on paper, and the teams right behind Denver on the betting board are not far off.
A Realistic Goal
A fair target for this team is 50 to 52 wins, a top-four seed and at least one playoff series win.
That would be a solid bounce back from last spring's early exit, and it would give Jokic and guard Jamal Murray another real shot in the second round.
Anything more depends on health, because a starting five with Gordon and guard Christian Braun on the floor is a very different team than the one that finished last season.
DeRozan is the addition that could swing things.
He can create his own shot, and one bench player who takes pressure off Jokic can change a playoff series.
There is already debate over whether the team should be content with this roster, and that question will not go away until this group proves it can stay healthy.
Denver still has Jokic, and that alone keeps the ceiling high.
The Nuggets open the regular season at Oklahoma City on Oct. 22, which will be a good early test against the team with the best win total in the West.
If Denver can hold its own there and stay healthy into the spring, 50 wins should be the starting point, and anything less would be a letdown.
