Bobby Marks projects a big deal for the Nuggets' restricted free agent wing.
The Denver Nuggets finished 54-28 this season and earned the third seed in the Western Conference before getting knocked out by the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games in the first round.
The offseason kicks off with one big decision, because Peyton Watson is a restricted free agent and the price to keep him keeps creeping up.
ESPN's Bobby Marks recently dropped a four-year, $90 million projection worth $22.5 million per year for the 23-year-old wing, and a number like that might actually be the bargain Denver is hoping for.
What Watson put together before getting hurt explains why every contender is paying attention.
Before a grade 2 hamstring strain shut him down in early February, Watson averaged 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.1 blocks in 29.6 minutes per game while shooting 49.1 percent from the floor and 41.1 percent from three across 54 games.
His first game back from the injury gave the Nuggets a glimpse of what they had been missing with a 14-point night against Portland, but he never returned for the playoffs and Denver clearly felt his absence in the series against Minnesota.
Why Denver Cannot Let Him Walk
The Nuggets already tipped their hand at the end of the year.
When executive vice president Ben Tenzer and Jonathan Wallace met with reporters at Ball Arena, the front office spent a good chunk of time talking about Watson's future, and team leadership said directly that they want him to be a Nugget for a long time.
The fit is too good to pass up because Watson can guard multiple positions, finish above the rim, and space the floor next to Nikola Jokic, all of which goes for far more than $22.5 million per year on the open market for a player turning 24 in September.
The Teams Lining Up to Pry Him Away
The Los Angeles Lakers finished 53-29 as the fourth seed in the West and reportedly looked into trading for Watson before the February deadline, so it makes sense they would circle back this summer.
The Chicago Bulls limped to 31-51 and need young wings, while the Brooklyn Nets went 20-62 and have around $50 million in cap space to spend.
Any one of those three teams can pitch an offer sheet large enough to push Denver past the second apron, but Watson cannot leave unless the Nuggets decide they will not match.
The Money Problem
Denver already has more than $200 million committed to eight players for 2026-27 with the second apron projected at $222 million, so the breathing room is gone before any new contract gets signed.
Christian Braun's five-year, $125 million extension from last fall set the going rate for the 2022 draft class, and Watson's number is going to land somewhere just under that.
Denver could have locked him in cheaper back in October, a decision Watson talked about openly, and now the front office has to decide whether $90 million is worth the cap headache that comes with it.
Given how rarely a homegrown wing this young hits the market, the answer should be yes.
