ESPN's new three-year outlook dropped Denver hard, and the reasons have almost nothing to do with how Nikola Jokic plays basketball.
ESPN released its yearly future power rankings this week, a projection of where every franchise will stand over the next three seasons, and the Denver Nuggets landed in a spot their fans are not used to seeing.
Denver came in 18th out of 30 teams, down from ninth a year ago, one of the biggest falls anywhere in the exercise.
Oklahoma City and San Antonio sit at the top, which surprises nobody, but seeing the team built around the best player of his generation parked in the league's bottom half takes some explaining.
Why ESPN Dropped Them
"The Nuggets took one of the largest tumbles in these rankings after a disappointing first-round loss last spring," ESPN's Zach Kram wrote in the passage highlighted around Denver this week.
Kram also pointed out that Denver is the only team currently sitting in the second apron, with several large long-term contracts already committed.
The category scores in the full 30-team project tell the story plainly.
Denver graded seventh in the league in players, but 24th in management, 24th in draft assets and dead last in the money category.
A roster this good has rarely been attached to a balance sheet this tight.
The Jokic Question Behind Everything
The deeper worry in the ESPN panel's eyes is the calendar.
Bobby Marks flagged center Nikola Jokic's next contract as the issue looming over the franchise, with Jokic expected to sign a new deal next summer, and Ben Golliver went as far as predicting the franchise will eventually feel forced to split up Jokic and point guard Jamal Murray.
Murray, forward Aaron Gordon and guard Christian Braun are all on significant long-term money, and the front office already drew a hard line in one negotiation this offseason, a sign of how little room is left under the aprons.
When the money category ranks last in the league, every extension talk turns into a question about the whole roster.
Why the Gloom Is Overrated
Rankings like this reward clean books and young stars, and they punish teams that are simply expensive, which is why the number underrates Denver.
The players category, the one that actually decides games, still grades the Nuggets seventh, and there is a strong case they remain a top-three team in the West right now.
Jokic gives this franchise a championship floor that 18th-ranked teams simply do not have, and his stated goal of playing all 82 games suggests his focus has not wavered.
There is also a difference between a warning light and a verdict.
The rankings are describing risk, the chance that the books eventually force a painful choice, and the risk is real, but a team with the best player in any given series gets to ignore a lot of spreadsheet problems once the playoffs start.
The picture three years out really is murky, and ESPN is right about that much.
The picture this season is not, and with training camps opening on September 29, Denver's window is still wide open while the best player alive is in it.
