Why Nuggets Should Surpass Projected Win Mark This Season

ESPN's season preview has the Denver Nuggets winning 48.7 games this season, and the panel ranked them eighth in the league.

That number does sound fair for a team that lost some depth over the summer, but I think Denver is set up to beat them with room to spare.

Denver went 54-28 last season and finished third in the Western Conference, and the Nuggets won their last 12 regular season games before the Minnesota Timberwolves beat them in six games in the first round.

Forward Aaron Gordon played just 36 games that year and center Nikola Jokic played 65, so the team won a lot of games without its best group on the floor.

The roster around the stars looks different now, as forward Peyton Watson went to Cleveland in a sign-and-trade that sent an unprotected 2031 first-round pick from the Cavaliers back to Denver, and guard Tim Hardaway Jr. and guard Bruce Brown are gone too.

Guard DeMar DeRozan signed a one-year deal after averaging 18.4 points for the Sacramento Kings last season, and he gives the bench a scorer it badly needed after losing Hardaway.

I like the over mostly because of what happens when the core plays together.

According to ESPN, Denver is 125-51 in the regular season when Jokic, guard Jamal Murray and Gordon all play, including a 20-6 mark last season, and NBA.com noted that coach David Adelman's preferred starting lineup went 18-5 in the 23 games it played together.

Gordon has looked like his old self, which his coach has noticed as well, and forward Cameron Johnson praised him after a preseason win over the Chicago Bulls earlier this month.

"To see him running around, looking healthy and playing hard is huge for us," Johnson said.

If Gordon even gets to 60 games, I think the extra wins could cover most of what Denver lost on the bench, because Jokic and Murray are still one of the best duos in the league.

Murray played 75 games last season and averaged a career-high 25.4 points, so he does not need to carry more than he already did.

Defense worries me more than anything else, since the Nuggets ranked 21st on that end in each of the last two seasons, and it has been a weak spot for this group for a while.

Forward Alpha Diallo, who was named the EuroLeague's top defender last season, should help on the wing.

Guard Julian Strawther sprained his left knee and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, so the injury list has already started to grow.

Forward Spencer Jones returned to practice Sunday after missing the preseason with a hamstring strain, which gives Adelman another defender to work with.

Denver also opens Thursday night at Paycom Center against the Oklahoma City Thunder and plays 14 of its first 22 games on the road, which is a hard start for any team.

I still have this group having the ability to get 50 wins as long as Gordon stays on the floor with Jokic and Murray.