ESPN Experts Predict Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Series

The first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs begins on Saturday with the Toronto Raptors heading to Rocket Arena to face the Cleveland Cavaliers. In their first playoff series since 2022, the Raptors enter as heavy underdogs, but are focused on establishing playoff experience to become a contender in the coming years. 

Although Toronto went 3-0 against Cleveland this season, the Cavaliers are largely expected to win because of the unmatched experience from their superstar backcourt duo, 11-time All-Star James Harden and seven-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell. While the Raptors don’t have anyone who has been through a lengthy playoff run, they also struggle to score in the fourth quarter, which is a recipe for disaster in the postseason. 

Because of these main factors, ESPN’s experts didn’t favor them in their first-round predictions. 

Out of the 13 experts who gave their opinions on who they think will win the 4/5 matchup, all 13 committed to Cleveland advancing to the second round. While nobody expected the Raptors to get swept, only two members anticipated the series going the distance to seven games. 

This may be disheartening to hear for Raptors’ fans, but it shouldn’t be that surprising. While their opinions don’t dictate how the series will actually go, there is validity in picking the higher-seeded Cavaliers to win. This is an especially important year for Cleveland’s franchise, as major change could be on the way this offseason if they don’t make a notable run to the championship. 

If the Raptors want to win their first series since the Bubble in 2020, they need to play with nothing to lose, as they should. They weren’t expected to even make the playoffs this season, so they should play freely and take the opportunity to compete with a team with much more on the line. The Cavaliers have been far from as dominant as they were in the 2025 regular season, so this isn’t a situation where the Raptors should expect to go in and get blown out every game, as they may if they were facing a team like the Boston Celtics or New York Knicks. 

The keys to success for Toronto are going to come from the defensive end. Although they are a much younger team, they have to understand that the star players are going to score on difficult plays in high-pressure situations. But if they can force the Cavaliers to take tough shots and take extra care of the basketball, they can capitalize on their relentless defensive tenacity and ability to push the ball in transition. They thrive in creating fastbreak opportunities, and with as poor of a half-court offense as they have, those situations are going to be the answer to winning games.