Raptors' Long-Term Outlook Takes Big Jump After Kawhi Leonard Trade

For years the question around the Toronto Raptors was when the climb back toward contention would begin, and this week one of the league's most detailed projections answered that it already has.

ESPN released its annual future power rankings, a three-year outlook for all 30 franchises, and Toronto landed 11th overall after sitting 20th in the same exercise a year ago.

Only seven Eastern Conference teams rank higher, and the one directly ahead of the Raptors at 10th is Cleveland, the team that ended their season in the first round.

The reasoning was easy to explain.

"Three factors have pushed Toronto from 20th last year to 11th in these rankings. First, Scottie Barnes enjoyed the best all-around season of his career. Second, Collin Murray-Boyles looked like a standout role player as a rookie," ESPN's Zach Kram wrote in the Toronto entry of the rankings, with the third factor being the trade that brought forward Kawhi Leonard back and the championship upside a former Finals MVP adds.

Leonard is the headline of that list, but the projection is really built on forward Barnes, whose growth is the reason people around the team keep calling this pairing dangerous for the rest of the conference.

The finances came out of the blockbuster cleaner than most fans probably assume.

The numbers in the full rankings piece show the Leonard deal left Toronto about $2.3 million below the first apron with two open roster spots, with three players earning over $27 million in Leonard, Barnes, and guard Immanuel Quickley, while forward RJ Barrett can reach free agency next summer.

The price was real, since forward Brandon Ingram, guard Gradey Dick, two future first-round picks, two second-rounders and a pick swap went the other way.

Toronto clearly believes Leonard wanted to be here for the right reasons, and a front office that kept its payroll under the aprons while adding a star gave itself room to keep adjusting.

An 11th-place future ranking is respectable, but the case for Toronto being underrated here is simple.

This is a team that won 46 games last season, finished fifth in the East and pushed Cleveland to a seventh game in the first round without ever having Leonard on the floor.

Barnes is entering his prime rather than leaving it, forward Collin Murray-Boyles gives the roster another young piece on a rookie deal, and expectations inside the organization have been rising all summer.

Rankings built on three-year windows will always dock a team whose best player is on an expiring contract, which describes Leonard, and that is fair.

The counterpoint is that the East is wide open enough for the upside case to arrive this season, with camps opening September 29 and the season starting October 20.

What separates 11th from the top ten is proof more than talent, and a strong run from October through April would supply plenty of it.

Toronto does not need three years to make 11th look silly, because one healthy spring would do it.