Wednesday night marks the first of an eight-game stretch against Eastern Conference foes for the Toronto Raptors, with five of the first six coming against the top four seeds. They start with a contest against the Boston Celtics, and while Toronto will have the rest advantage since Boston faced the Philadelphia 76ers last night, the Raptors have their work cut out for them with several key members out again. 

Most notably, seven-time All-Star Kawhi Leonard continues to rehab and regain his conditioning after experiencing swelling in his left knee. With a reevaluation set to take place in about a week, there is still ample time for this young Raptors squad to figure out how to win without an All-NBA-level scorer. It looked like things may be alright as franchise cornerstone Scottie Barnes made significant progress in his offensive arsenal, but now he has sat out the past few games due to a groin strain and remains out against Boston. 

Two more key players who sat out in the last game against the Memphis Grizzlies were Collin Murray-Boyles (illness) and Immanuel Quickley (hamstring strain). They are both listed on the official NBA injury report as questionable just a few hours before tipoff, but they unfortunately aren’t the end of the list. Backup forward/center Trayce Jackson-Davis appears to have also picked up an illness and will be out. On the Celtics’ side, nine-time All-Star Paul George will miss the contest due to an illness. After scoring 36 points in Boston’s route to overtaking the 76ers for the top seed in the East, he earned a night off, and they’re hoping Jayson Tatum will be able to fend off the depleted Raptors without his new costar. 

For those who haven’t watched much of the Joe Mazzulla-led Celtics, especially over the last year and a half, they love to shoot threes. For large portions of the game, it appears their entire offense is built around getting looks from beyond the arc to satisfy the analytics. They proved in their first-round playoff series last year that even when the shots aren’t falling, they are not going to stop shooting them, whether they have good looks or not. This has been no different to start the new season, as the Celtics rank fifth in threes attempted per game (42.2), second in threes made (16.2), and third in three-point percentage (38.4%). 

Unfortunately for the Raptors, they haven’t been nearly as good at forcing poor looks this season. Last year, they were one of the best teams in the league at contesting every shot available and grinding teams out to force bad shots at the end of the shot clock. That skill hasn’t completely escaped them, but the numbers certainly don’t favor Toronto either. The team is holding their opposition to 47.8% shooting from the field (23rd in NBA) and 36.5% from three (21st). On the bright side, they are first in the league in opposing field-goal attempts because of their ability to force turnovers (20 per game, also first in NBA). Again playing devil’s advocate, the Celtics are sixth in the league in turnovers per game (14.4), so this really is just a bad matchup through and through. 

Simply put, Toronto is not going to be able to match Boston in shooting; not only are there very few, if any, teams that can do so, but the Raptors are one of the worst shooting teams in the league again (31.8%, 27th in NBA). If they want to have a chance to beat the best team in the conference while shorthanded, they need to emphasize getting as many fastbreak points as possible (averaging 16.2 per game, ninth in NBA), and continue to slow the game down to expose Boston’s lack of offense inside the arc (27th in points in the paint with 41.1 per game).