Tuesday night, the Toronto Raptors face off against the reigning champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, in the first game of one of their most pivotal stretches of the season. After winning back-to-back games out of the All-Star break against the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks on the road, Toronto will have to dig deep to make a win-streak against the top team in the NBA, while also sweeping the season series. 

Currently sitting at the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, the Raptors have work to do in order to obtain home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They will go up against five top-10 teams in the NBA over the next seven games, and five more in the final 18 games of the season. While the especially positive record may blindly convince fans of Toronto’s ability to contend, its record against the top-10 teams is currently 1-13, outside of the Cleveland Cavaliers. 

Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic | © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Opportunity may strike at home in Scotiabank Arena, though, as the injury report spells bad news for the champions. 

According to the official NBA injury report, the reigning champions will be without reigning MVP and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to manage his abdominal strain. Joining him on the sidelines are Ajay Mitchell (left ankle sprain) and Jalen Williams (right hamstring strain). As for the Raptors, Scottie Barnes is back after missing the game in Milwaukee due to a personal reason, and Jakob Poeltl will miss the contest due to injury management from his lower back strain on the first night of a back-to-back. 

While some may count out the Thunder on the road without two of their three All-Stars, they have proven to shine no matter who is on the floor, as seen in their four wins over the last five games. Even without the Canadian sensation, OKC has the top two leaders in individual defensive rating this season in Chet Holmgren (104.6) and Cason Wallace (106.5) (via StatMuse). 

The Thunder are simply a matchup nightmare for any team in the NBA, as shown in their 24-1 start to the season. They are incredibly efficient in shooting the ball from all three levels, they are extremely careful with the basketball, and have one of the most relentless defenses NBA fans have seen in quite some time. With all this being said, the Raptors were still able to squeak out a win on the road just under a month ago, but how?

Looking at the team statistics, Toronto beat Oklahoma City in nearly every category. The Raptors won the differential in field goals, three-point field goals and percentage, offensive and defensive rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, fastbreak points, and points in the paint. In what seemed on the surface like utter domination from the team up North, they still led in just 39% of the game and won by two points. 

Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) | © Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

When looking at their minimal weaknesses on the season, though, the Thunder have consistently struggled against opponents who are able to outrebound them. This may be a concern for Toronto, considering both Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have been cleared to play, and the Raptors are missing their own starting center. 

Instead, the key for this matchup will clearly be to abuse the players who are forced to become primary scorers with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams out. Toronto obtains one of the best defenses in the NBA, and they excel when they force teams to beat them from the three-point line, which happens to be the least efficient shot for the reigning champions.