Toronto Raptors Playoff Seeding Scenarios with One Game Remaining

There is just one game left for the Toronto Raptors in the 2026 NBA regular season, and the options for making the playoffs remain endless. After a 45-36 record, the Raptors have slotted themselves into a great position to end their three-year playoff drought, but the season is not over yet. 

The final game comes on Sunday on the road against the 20-61 Brooklyn Nets. A game that should be a guaranteed win is no longer certain after the Raptors suffered a 123-115 loss to the Sacramento Kings just under two weeks ago, giving them their 20th win on the season. 

As many teams rest their starters to prepare for the postseason, the Raptors do not have that luxury in game No. 82. Just two games separate seeds 5-8, and Toronto can finish in any of those positions depending on the results of the final game for each team. 

Important teams to pay attention to in the final games are the Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, and Philadelphia 76ers. The only way the 76ers become relevant to Toronto would be if the Raptors lose to the Nets, as that allows for them to drop below the 76ers into the eighth seed.

If the Hawks lose to the Miami Heat, the Raptors would need to beat the Nets and have the Magic lose to the Boston Celtics to acquire the fifth seed and face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. This is the only sum of options for the Raptors to climb in the standings because of Orlando being tied with Toronto. Having the Magic beat the Celtics would end in a three-way tie, resulting in the Hawks being awarded the fifth seed. 

There are several possibilities for the Raptors to finish as the sixth seed, where they currently stand before the final games. However, as they are tied with the Magic, they desperately need to beat the Nets to avoid dropping into the Play-In Tournament. Of the 32 different options for results for the five games, only four of them result in the Raptors maintaining the sixth seed if they lose to the Nets. 

From a numbers standpoint, this means that Toronto has just a 25% chance to avoid the Play-In if Brooklyn is victorious on Sunday. The other 75% chance is split 50/25 for whether they will end as the seventh or eighth seeds. In total, the Raptors have a 25% chance to finish as the sixth seed, 50% chance to finish seventh, and 25% chance to finish eighth if they lose tomorrow night. 

Considering the most likely overall odds for the Raptors are to finish as the sixth seed, they will be set to face the New York Knicks in the first round. After a 112-95 loss last night to the Knicks, Toronto finished the regular season 0-5 against them. The most upsetting part of the five losses is the overall point differential of -98, averaging almost a 20-point loss in each contest.