Where Raptors Land in New 2026-27 NBA Summer Forecast

The Toronto Raptors keep hearing that their ceiling depends on a trade that still has not closed, and ESPN's new Summer Forecast is the clearest example yet.

The panel released its projected standings on Monday and slotted Toronto eighth in the Eastern Conference at 45-37, grouped with the play-in teams behind Atlanta and Miami at 47-35 and just ahead of Indiana and Orlando.

The Knicks and Pistons share the projected top spot at 53-29, with Cleveland, Philadelphia and Boston rounding out the top five.

For a team that won 46 games a year ago and believes it added a superstar this summer, a play-in projection is odd.

ESPN's Jamal Collier wrote that Miami and Toronto acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard respectively, and that both teams will open the season considering themselves top contenders as long as those stars are healthy.

Leonard is the main complication, because the agreed deal sending Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2027 pick swap and two second-rounders to the Clippers remains on hold during the league's investigation into salary cap circumvention allegations.

ESPN's reporters have written that Leonard and the Raptors are operating under the belief the trade will be completed, but a forecast cannot project a player who is not officially on the roster.

If you treat the trade as background noise, the floor here still looks higher than 45 wins.

Toronto went 46-36 and finished fifth in the East last season while taking Cleveland to seven games in the first round, and it did that with a defense that ranked fifth in the league at 113.0 points allowed per 100 possessions.

The offense was the clear weakness, ranking 21st in the league at 114.6 points a game, and that is the hole a healthy Leonard would fill.

Scottie Barnes drove the defensive identity, earning All-Defensive second team honors while averaging 18.1 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists across 80 games.

Head coach Darko Rajakovic showed how much of his own success he ties to the young forward in a recent interview.

"My Michael Jordan is Scottie Barnes," he said, comparing their partnership to the one Phil Jackson shared with Michael Jordan.

Toronto is really carrying two very different possible seasons inside one roster right now.

If Leonard arrives and stays on the floor, the Raptors add an All-NBA scorer to a top-five defense and the projected gap between them and the East's top five closes in a hurry.

If the deal collapses, they keep Ingram, who averaged 21.5 points last season, plus their picks and a core that already proved it belongs in the playoff field.

There are still two key roster decisions hanging over the depth chart, and rookie Jaden Bradley and Allen Graves give the team a possible wild card.

A 45-win projection is still low to me, but the relationship between Rajakovic and Barnes is the steadier foundation, and it is not going anywhere no matter what the league decides.