The Kawhi Leonard deal is still frozen, but whichever way it breaks, Toronto's season may hinge on its two young guards.
The Toronto Raptors are spending the last weeks of the offseason in a strange spot, with an agreed Kawhi Leonard trade still frozen while the NBA finishes its investigation of the Clippers.
Most of the conversation around the team is about what the front office cannot control.
The better conversation is about what it already has, because whether the deal closes before camp or drags deep into the season, Ja'Kobe Walter and Jamal Shead are the two young guards who will shape how good this team can actually be.
Neither is part of the reported deal, and both finished last season playing real minutes for a 46-win playoff team.
The Two Names Not in the Deal
The framework reported by ESPN's Shams Charania sends Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and a package of picks to the Clippers for Leonard.
Read that list from Toronto's side and the guard depth thins out overnight, since the minutes behind Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett have to come from somewhere.
Walter and Shead are the obvious answers, which is why the club picked up Shead's team option back in June and why everyone is so excited about Walter's case for a Year 3 breakout.
What Each Brings
Walter turned his second season into a real step forward, appearing in 72 games and hitting 40.9 percent from three, up from 34.9 percent as a rookie.
The 2024 first-rounder out of Baylor gave Toronto 7.5 points a night in about 20 minutes and chipped in a steal a game, and that shooting jump is exactly the skill an offense built around Leonard and Barnes would need on the floor next to them, since defenses would have to pay for loading up on the stars.
Shead fills the other need.
He played all 82 games and averaged 5.4 assists in 22.6 minutes, finished 12th in Sixth Man of the Year voting, and then raised his level in the playoffs, putting up 9.0 points and 5.0 assists in 32 minutes a night across the seven-game Cleveland series.
Darko Rajakovic explained his trust in the 45th pick out of Houston back in December.
"He's a true point guard, you know? His heart and mind is in the right place. He just thinks how to make the best play every single time down the court," Rajakovic said.
Why the Stakes Go Up With Leonard
Leonard played 65 games and averaged 27.9 points last season, and he turned 35 in June, so any plan built around him comes with nights off and careful minute management.
Barnes remains the centerpiece, and Rajakovic has been open about his belief there, even comparing Barnes to Michael Jordan in his own way.
A contending version of this roster needs Walter spacing the floor beside the stars and Shead steadying the second unit so they can rest.
If the deal never closes, the two of them are still the development story of the season.
The league office will move at whatever pace it moves.
Toronto's job is having its two young guards ready either way, and by spring that could be the difference between another first-round exit and something bigger.
