For the first time since 2022, the Toronto Raptors are on their way to the NBA Playoffs. After a 46-26 record in the regular season, the Raptors were barely able to avoid the Play-In Tournament (just one game ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers in the seventh seed), but captured the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. 

While they finished in a tie with the Atlanta Hawks, Toronto’s superior head-to-head record allowed them to finish higher in the standings, and more importantly, dodge the New York Knicks in the first round. The Raptors went 0-5 against the Knicks this season and finished with a total net margin of -98. 

Instead, the Raptors will face a franchise they are 0-3 against in the postseason, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Thanks to the NBA’s All-Time Leading Scorer, LeBron James, the Raptors were eliminated by the Cavaliers three years in a row, including 10 straight losses in a 2-12 total record. 

It’s a new era for both franchises eight years after their previous playoff matchup. Toronto is working to gain postseason experience and build a contender around all-stars Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram. Cleveland is trying to salvage a disappointing second-round loss last season after possessing the top seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Proving their commitment to winning now, they traded away starting point guard Darius Garland for 11-time All-Star James Harden, who is in his 17th NBA season at 36 years old. Not only is he not getting any younger, but he has a player option in his contract for next season, meaning he could leave Cleveland in free agency after just half of a season. 

Cleveland has a lot to lose in this year’s playoffs; not only could they lose Harden next season, but seven-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell is going into his final guaranteed year with the franchise, and could leave next summer if the Cavaliers don’t get over the hump. Because of this, expect them to leave it all on the floor, assuming they don’t get worn out by the relentless Raptors’ defense. 

The Cavaliers make their money on the offensive end. Adding a former three-time scoring champion, two-time assist champion, and league MVP allows for a much more dynamic offense with everyone becoming a weapon if the ball is in Harden’s hands. Not to mention, Mitchell finished the regular season with near career-bests in points per game (27.9) and field goal percentage (48.3%). If the Raptors have a chance at winning the series, they need to limit the superstar backcourt duo as much as possible. 

Potentially the greatest problem Cleveland poses for Toronto is its ability to score in the second half, specifically. The Cavaliers are No. 2 in the league in third-quarter scoring with 31.1 points per game (compared to Raptors’ No. 4 ranking with 30.7) and No. 1 in fourth-quarter scoring with 30.0 (compared to Raptors’ No. 27 ranking with 26.4). 

The worst scenario for Toronto is to be in a tight game against Mitchell (28.3 career points per game in playoffs over 63 games, via StatMuse) and Harden (22.5/6.5/5.5 averages in 173 playoff games, via StatMuse). If any more convincing was needed, even in seasons 15-17, Harden is reaching new heights in effective field goal percentage in clutch (via Inpredictable), and Mitchell hasn’t shot under 51% in EFG% in the regular season and playoffs since 2021 (via Inpredictable). 

Quite the opposite of the Cavaliers, the Raptors are one of the most dominant defenses in the NBA. Led by Defensive Player of the Year contender Barnes, Toronto hounds opposing ball-handlers with aggressive, physical defense that consistently forces poor shot selection (No. 7 in opposing EFG% with 54.0%) and turnovers (No. 4 in opposing turnovers with 16.1). 

Toronto’s defense is so impressive because of its versatility and depth. There are very few, if any, players that opposing teams can matchup hunt (one of Harden’s best abilities), and the Raptors can matchup with nearly anyone due to the different schemes based on personnel. Jakob Poeltl and Collin Murray-Boyles provide very different skillsets that play to the Raptors’ strengths, like strength and physicality vs. length and athleticism, depending on who’s on the floor. Their two leading scorers, Ingram and RJ Barrett, have proven to be solid defenders this season, allowing them to be effective in the clutch on both ends of the floor. 

Offense has been the downfall of this team, especially in the final period. Ranking 14th in the NBA in offensive rating with 115.0, as they did this season, won’t be enough to keep up with the Cavaliers. The Raptors rank in the bottom third of the league in scoring for every quarter except the third, and the fourth quarter is their worst by a significant margin.

Their sense of direction with the ball late in games falls apart due to intensifying defenses on Barrett and Ingram, who seemingly just take turns running isolation until forcing a tough shot in the midrange. There are very few shooters on the roster who prove to be difference makers, outside of Ja’Kobe Walter, so teams who pack the paint late in games tend to be victorious against Toronto. 

It’s worth noting that starting point guard Immanuel Quickley is day-to-day with an ongoing mild hamstring strain. After missing eight straight games just a couple of weeks ago due to plantar fasciitis, the ball ran through Barnes, who averaged double-digit assists over the stretch. Quickley’s absence also allowed for more shooting in the starting lineup with Walter as his replacement. Whether Quickley is ready for Game 1 or not, Toronto’s best chance of offensive production may come from utilizing Barnes as the primary ball-handler and having Walter in at the end of games for the best scoring lineup available.