Raptors' Preseason Numbers Reveal One Concern That Could Follow Them Into the Regular Season

The Toronto Raptors have spent the offseason building toward a season that feels different from the ones before it. Kawhi Leonard is back in the picture, Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett appear ready to build on their playoff success, and expectations around the team have started to rise.

With Wednesday’s opener against the Chicago Bulls approaching, though, one part of Toronto’s game still needs a closer look: whether the roster has enough shooting to make its new-look offense work against the best teams in the East.

Leonard’s return gives Toronto a different kind of offensive threat. His ability to create his own shot should force defenses to devote more attention to him, potentially opening driving lanes for Barnes and giving Barrett and Immanuel Quickley cleaner looks from the perimeter. But that advantage only goes so far if opposing defenses can afford to leave Toronto’s other shooters open.

That is the question Sports Illustrated's Rocco Moschella raised ahead of the season, arguing that Toronto’s perimeter shooting could determine how high the team’s ceiling really is. The Raptors have the star power to make defenses adjust, but the players around Leonard and Barnes will have to make those adjustments costly.

There are encouraging signs that the offense is moving in the right direction. Toronto averaged 117.1 points per 100 possessions during the preseason, ranking sixth in the NBA. That would represent a step forward from last season’s league-average mark of 115 points per 100 possessions.

Barnes and Barrett have also looked comfortable coming out of the postseason. The two combined to average 48.2 points per game against Cleveland in their playoff series, and their preseason production has offered reason to believe that stretch was not an isolated burst. Through four preseason games apiece, their combined scoring, adjusted to 36 minutes, reached 55.6 points per game on 53 percent shooting, including 45.2 percent from three-point range.

The defensive side is a little less settled. Toronto ranked among the league’s top five defenses last season, but its preseason numbers have slipped, with the team sitting 21st in defensive rating. Head coach Darko Rajakovic cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from such a small sample, particularly when the projected starters have played limited minutes together.

“Even when the season starts, I find it difficult to look at first 10 games and make big conclusions,” Rajakovic said, via Sportsnet's Michael Grange. “We have to take it one game at a time.”

That patience makes sense with the regular season about to begin. The Raptors have had only a handful of preseason games to evaluate their main lineups, and Rajakovic does not appear interested in treating early statistics as a verdict on what this team can become.

There are other questions, particularly around Jakob Poeltl’s health and whether Trayce Jackson-Davis can provide reliable minutes behind him. But the shooting issue could shape how Toronto’s biggest strengths translate against tougher competition. If defenses can crowd the paint without consistently paying for it from the perimeter, Barnes and Leonard will have less room to operate.

The Raptors open against Chicago on Wednesday with plenty of reason for optimism. How well the supporting cast converts the opportunities created by its stars may determine whether that optimism holds once the games start counting.