The numbers are vastly different with each of them in the starting lineup, and the Raptors need to figure out what the best five is going into the playoffs.
With only 22 games remaining in the Toronto Raptors’ regular season, they have yet to establish their ability to compete with the best teams in the NBA. While possessing a 35-25 record overall, their record plummets to just 1-15 against top-10 teams in the NBA, outside of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Toronto’s problem moving forward is not necessarily whether they will miss the playoffs for a fourth-straight season. Sitting as the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, the Raptors hold a 3.5-game lead over the seventh-seeded Orlando Magic. This is relevant because seeds 7-10 will compete in the Play-In Tournament to determine the final two spots in the playoffs, and the Raptors should be trying to avoid that at all costs.
Toronto Raptors guard/forward Brandon Ingram (3) | © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
While they haven’t been nearly as impacted as other teams by the injury bug, the Raptors have had to adjust for long periods of time without their true starting five. RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl have missed 24 and 34 games, respectively, and largely at different times. Because of this, head coach Darko Rajakovic has had to experiment with multiple different lineups to try to salvage the continuity of the team.
When they’re both available, it seems Poeltl and rookie first-round pick Collin Murray-Boyles go back and forth between playing the center position alongside the other four starters. The former South Carolina Gamecock has been excellent in his own regard, but there is a very interesting discrepancy between the five-man lineups, including each of these two as the center.
Having Poeltl as the starting center, as he usually is, the Raptors possess one of the most interesting five-man lineups in the league. This is because in 187 minutes together, the offensive rating totals 125.0 (highest offensive rating in the NBA is 120.3 by the Boston Celtics), but the defensive rating totals 122.1 (lowest defensive rating in the NBA is 120.7 by the Utah Jazz). As a result, the numbers are off the charts on both ends of the floor, but they essentially cancel each other out, as the net rating totals just 2.9.
On the other hand, having Murray-Boyles as the center makes for much more realistic numbers on both ends, with the pros and cons being flipped. In 148 minutes together, the offensive rating for this lineup is 114.8 (would be 14th in the NBA), and the defensive rating is 110.7 (would be fourth in the NBA), while the net rating totals 4.1.
Who Should Be Starting?
The interesting thing about these two lineups is that the net rating only changes from 10th in the NBA to 11th, going from Murray-Boyles to Poeltl. However, the answer may actually be to play both of them together. What many may immediately think of is how would that work offensively? However, moving Barrett to the bench for Murray-Boyles may be the answer; despite how crazy it may sound, it could end up being the most effective option.
If one were to think of Barrett in this current Raptors starting lineup, they may think of a backup shot-creator to Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes, who provides solid all-around impact on both ends. The problem with him in a lineup with Immanuel Quickley and either of the centers is that he can easily be lost in translation on the offensive end. At this point, he is widely considered the fourth-option offensively, and he is not one of the top shooters or playmakers on the team, so his defense now becomes a priority for positive impact.
Because of this, it should be a seamless fit to replace him with the standout rookie. Murray-Boyles has been hesitant to attack the rim and find his own shot, even with the bench unit, but his shooting numbers actually surpass those of the former Duke Blue Devil. Murray-Boyles has better averages than Barrett in three-point percentage (35.4-34.1), two-point percentage (60.1-54.3), scoring efficiency (1.351-1.308), and shooting efficiency (0.59-0.53).
Toronto Raptors forward/center Collin Murray-Boyles (12) | © Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Turning to the defensive end, it’s no secret that Murray-Boyles has been a nightmare to deal with for opposing teams. He presents many of the same traits as Barnes, who is making a case to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award this season. His 6-foot-7, 7-foot-1 wingspan frame allows him to provide intensive pressure both on the perimeter and in the paint; having the two of them together with Poeltl staying down low would force teams to try and beat the Raptors with shooting, which hasn’t proven to be extremely effective.
As the final month and a half before the postseason approaches, the Raptors need to find something that works against the league’s best. If this change comes at all, it won’t be in their next game against the New York Knicks, due to Murray-Boyles being listed as out due to a thumb contusion. Time will tell if Rajakovic chooses to make an adjustment against the top teams or tries to let the players figure it out on their own.