Rockets vs Nuggets Odds Pick and Prediction for Monday Night

The Houston Rockets are looking to snap a two-game skid tonight, and the Denver Nuggets are a tough team to do it against. The sportsbooks still have Houston as 4.5-point favorites at Toyota Center.

I'm erring on the side of caution and taking the Rockets on the alternate line at minus 2.5, so Houston needs to win by three. I'm still confident the Rockets walk out of Toyota Center with a win, but it'll be close. My final score is Rockets 113, Nuggets 109.

Odds are current as of 2:30 p.m. CT on Monday, Nov. 9, and subject to change before tipoff.

DraftKings: Moneyline Rockets -173, Nuggets +146. Spread Rockets -4.5 (-105), Nuggets +4.5 (-115)

FanDuel: Moneyline Rockets -184, Nuggets +154. Spread Rockets -4.5 (-110), Nuggets +4.5 (-110)

BetMGM: Moneyline Rockets -185, Nuggets +150. Spread Rockets -4.5 (-110), Nuggets +4.5 (-110)

Caesars: Moneyline Rockets -178, Nuggets +150. Spread Rockets -4.5 (-105), Nuggets +4.5 (-115)

Alternate spread Rockets -2.5: DraftKings (-142), FanDuel (-140), BetMGM (-145), Caesars (-145)

Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. CT at Toyota Center in Houston.

TV: Space City Home Network and SCHN+ in Houston, Altitude and KTVD in Denver, and NBA League Pass.

Houston's last two games are why I'm shaving off two points. The Rockets were 7.5-point favorites at home against Minnesota and 6.5-point favorites in Phoenix, and they lost both outright. I didn't see either one coming, and the sportsbooks didn't either.

The bigger names have gotten a different Houston team. Oklahoma City and Boston both left Toyota Center with double-digit losses, and the defense was suffocating in each, holding the Thunder to a 43.5-percent clip and the Celtics to 38.6-percent shooting. When a contender is on the other side, this group has locked in.

Denver (5-3) is obviously in that class that of opponent. Jamal Murray is averaging 24 points and dropped 42 on New Orleans, while Nikola Jokić is at 23 points a night with three triple-doubles.

Six Nuggets, Jokić and Murray included, were questionable on our injury report Sunday night, but the NBA's latest injury report has all six as probable. Houston is still without Clint Capela and Steven Adams, which leaves Alperen Şengün as the only true center to deal with Jokić.

Here's what keeps me from going all in: Houston lost the fourth quarter in all three of its losses, and it's 6-0 when it shoots at a 40-percent clip or better from three and 1-3 when it doesn't. If the threes go cold late, this could get uncomfortable fast.

Two and a half points is all the cushion I need. The Rockets play their best when the opponent gets tougher, and I'm riding Houston to a gritty 113-109 win.

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