Teams jockey for position, eyeing specific playoff opponents. Unconventional strategies emerge as seeding battles intensify down the stretch.
With Victor Wembanyama’s injury last night, detailed on BasketNews, it seems like the Spurs and Thunder are locked into second and first place, respectively. There's still some wiggle room for seeds three through six, though. More realistically third, fourth, and fifth place.
The Rockets are right in that mix, along with the Lakers and Nuggets. The Minnesota Timberwolves are virtually locked into the sixth seed after their recent losses, though it’s not technically official yet.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Wolves rest some guys to prepare for the playoffs, rather than trying to pick up any more wins in the regular season. Basketball-Reference shows them having a 97.2-percent probability to finish in sixth place.
The Lakers are in the same boat, considering there’s no definitive date for Luka and Reaves to get back on the court. I don’t imagine LeBron wants to go all out in year 23, so Los Angeles seems like the most favorable first round opponent.
While LA reportedly has a 49.6-percent chance to finish in third place, I personally find it way more likely they finish fifth. In order for the Rockets to get that matchup, they’d likely have to finish in fourth place. Tonight’s game in Phoenix will be a huge deciding factor.
With two late games on the schedule, OKC is headed to Los Angeles for their final meeting with the Lakers. Assuming the Thunder win, Houston would be tied with the Lakers if they can pick up a win of their own.
Of course there’s still more work to be done since the Lakers earned the tiebreaker over Houston, as covered on Roundtable. I can’t imagine LA doing well in their final back to back at Golden State, then vs Phoenix at home.
The Nuggets have already passed the Lakers and it seems like it’s only a matter of time until the Rockets do the same. The only question then would be if the Nuggets are willing to intentionally lose games in order to get a more favorable matchup.
That looked like a great possibility last night, as they trailed the Blazers for virtually the entire night. I was convinced they didn’t want to win and were aiming to stay in fourth place themselves. However, they did eek out and overtime win after a 16 point comeback.
I don’t think they wanted to lose. I’m also not sure if the Thunder or Spurs will necessarily care about winning for Denver’s final two games. We don’t even know if Wemby will be playing by then.
It seems like everything is lining up for the Lakers to be in Houston to start Round 1, but be sure to watch out for some chicanery from teams trying to pick their own matchups.