Fresh off a 52-win season and key veteran additions, Houston sits behind the West’s elite. We analyze if these roster upgrades justify their spot among conference contenders.
As of Wednesday, it looks like the Houston Rockets will enter the 2026-27 season with the fifth-best odds to win the Western Conference at +1700 on FanDuel, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves. That may not be the placement fans hoped to see after an active offseason, but it feels like a fair assessment with nearly three months remaining before opening night- at least for now.
Houston earned that respect last season, finishing 52-30 all while navigating injuries throughout the year and outscoring opponents by an average of 5.22 points per game, edging Denver’s 5.15-point margin.
A first-round playoff exit against the Los Angeles Lakers left a sour taste, but one series doesn’t erase six months of a predominantly successful regular-season. Oklahoma City (+11.15) and San Antonio (+8.30) also separated themselves statistically, making it difficult to argue either team should enter the season anywhere but the top of the conference.
General manager Rafael Stone does deserve credit for avoiding the temptation to overhaul a roster that was already winning games trying to squeeze an extra superstar in the budget.
Twelve-year vet Marcus Smart adds another experienced defender and ball handler, while Bogdan Bogdanović brings that much needed shooting and secondary playmaking. Re-signing Tari Eason keeps one of Houston’s most versatile defenders in the fold while preserving the identity that helped the Rockets become one of the league’s better defensive teams.
The goal thus far seems to be to strengthen the rotation without changing the foundation- usually a good sign for a team coming off a 52-win season. The bigger question is whether those additions are enough to close the gap on Oklahoma City and San Antonio, two teams that established themselves as the class of the Western Conference over the course of last season.
Let’s not forget though that the rest of the conference remains in flux. Minnesota reshaped its roster, Denver kept its championship core together around Nikola Jokić, and several other contenders continue to evaluate their options before training camp. More movement around the league could still reshape the betting market over the next few months.
All in all, the fifth feels like the right spot today. The Rockets have obviously earned a place in the contender conversation, but they still have several steps to take, along with a little unmanageable luck, before they belong in the same tier as the Thunder and Spurs.
I don’t see Houston as an NBA Finals favorite entering the season, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if these Western Conference odds shift before the trade deadline. With several teams still capable of making another move, there’s plenty of time for the race to look different than it does in late July.
