Phoenix starts fast, but Houston's interior strength and timely threes can overcome their notorious third-quarter slump for a strong finish.
Here’s what the Rockets’ matchup with the Suns on Friday night is probably going to look like: Phoenix jumps out first, Houston owns the middle, and then we all collectively hold our breath through that Rockets third-quarter lapse we’ve been seeing in the last few matchups. That’s been the rhythm, and until they prove otherwise, it’s the safest prediction on the board.
The Suns should take the first quarter. They usually come out sharp, and without Alperen Şengün anchoring the interior early, Houston may give up a few easy looks before they settle in. Steven Adams will have to take on the entire glass-cleaning operation by himself, which is a big ask, but also something he’s fully capable of handling if the guards help collapse on rebounds.
Where the tide turns is Phoenix’s defense- it collapses over and over again. And the Rockets feast on that. Once Houston starts bending the floor, the kickouts write themselves. Between Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith Jr., Josh Okogie, somebody is going to be standing wide open from three because Phoenix simply can’t cover everyone, especially if they burn bodies doubling Durant.
Speaking of Durant, he’s the obvious candidate to lead Houston in scoring tonight. He pulls doubles on command, manipulates spacing, and forces defenses into mismatch rotations they can’t keep up with. Expect Udoka to get creative with the substitutions- staggered substitutions, odd pairings, and a lot of strategic pace-control to punish Phoenix’s weak interior discipline.
The only real danger zone is the third quarter, where Houston has been letting teams back into games lately. If that happens again, Phoenix might get a window. But the Rockets are becoming one of the best closing teams in the league. If they get to the fourth with any cushion at all, they should seal it without too much drama.