With Western Conference rivals making significant roster changes this offseason, the Houston Rockets need to take advantage of that instability to secure home-court advantage.
With the transaction cycle of this offseason slowing down as rosters have filled up, we have a pretty good idea of how each team will look to start next year. That’s led multiple sites to come out with projections for all 30 teams, and you might be surprised where the Rockets sit.
Multiple major betting sites expect the Houston Rockets to take somewhat of a substantial hit to their total wins on the season, putting their over/under at 46.5 wins. Writers from Bleacher Report had a bit more confidence, though, giving Ime Udoka and his team 50 wins.
Obviously people can throw any number out there, but I have to give credit where it’s due —— the folks at BR nailed their projection last year, perfectly predicting another 52-30 season.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25251610-win-loss-predictions-every-teams-2025-26-nba-seasonThat can give fans some confidence in this team winning 50+ games for the third straight season, but it’s not the upward trajectory that we were hoping for. Thankfully, the two teams above Houston in the standings last season are expected to fall off even further.
After winning one more regular season game than the Rockets, and eliminating them from the playoffs, the LA Lakers’ over/under is two games lower this year, at 44.5. Their reconstructed roster is expected to win five less games, dropping them in the standings.
Similarly, the Denver Nuggets are expected to win four less games, which would have them tied with the Rockets at 50-32. Unlike Houston, the betting sites gave them a slightly more generous 48.5 over/under, which is presumably due to their championship DNA.
On paper, Denver had a much worse offseason, though, so Houston has a chance to surpass them. They lost their versions of Tari Eason and Steven Adams, while the Rockets are getting both of those guys back, along with Fred VanVleet and various other additions. Home-court advantage should be a very realistic goal.
That’s even more true after looking at the Minnesota Timberwolves’ projections. They have a higher over/under at 47.5, but are still only expected to win 49 games. I personally think that’s generous, even with all of their talent.
LaMelo Ball is a great and exciting player, but I’d have to imagine there’s a reason why the Charlotte Hornets felt comfortable trading him after their most fun and successful season in a long time. Injuries could easily derail his new team this year, too.
Ime Udoka and his squad need to take advantage of the instability from these other organizations and aim to obtain the third seed in the West. At the very least, I expect them to get home-court advantage, which we discussed the importance of here on Roundtable.
