Thompson will likely make the All-Defensive First Team, but does he have what it takes to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award?
Victor Wembanyama is the obvious favorite to win the next Defensive Player of the Year award, but I'm backing a dark horse: Amen Thompson.
Wembanyama is currently a huge favorite to win the award against the field across all sportsbooks, being available around -250. This has an implied probability of around 71%.
MGM has Thompson to win the award at +8000, which has an implied probability of 1.22%. This number is ridiculous in my opinion, and there are many reasons why.
Thompson is nearly the perfect definition of a versatile defender. With a seven-foot wingspan and elite explosiveness, he has the tools to defend virtually every position and routinely take on some of the NBA’s toughest assignments.
His defensive versatility and success were reflected in his statistics, as he averaged 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. The more analytical and in-depth we get into his statistics, the more impressive his numbers become.
For example, opponents shot just 40.7% from the field when guarded by Thompson. Among players who defended at least 500 shots during the season, that mark ranked first in the NBA.
This statistic is even more impressive when taking into account the fact that Thompson was consistently given the task of defending the best offensive player on the opposing team.
The return of Fred VanVleet will also allow Thompson to improve on his already phenomenal defense. Last season, Thompson had to spend a lot of his energy running the offense due to Fred VanVleet’s ACL injury. With VanVleet healthy and organizing the offense, Thompson can channel more of his energy and relentless athleticism into defending.
Winning Defensive Player of the Year requires an extraordinary level of consistency, impact, and recognition. Thompson is already getting serious recognition from voters.
He finished in the top 10 in DPOY voting in back-to-back seasons, placing fifth and then eighth, while also earning an All-Defensive First Team selection. And even with Victor Wembanyama running away with a unanimous win last season, Thompson still managed to pick up a few second-place votes.
The fact that Wemby won the award last season also provides a small boost to Thompson, as it is typically harder to win an award the second consecutive year.
Wemby does have an obvious advantage when it comes to his blocking, as he has established himself as one of the most prolific rim protectors in basketball history.
However, all the other factors that I mentioned support the theory that Thompson can win the award.
Lock it in: Amen Thompson will win the Defensive Player of the Year
