Do the Rockets Have a First Round Problem in the Playoffs?

The Houston Rockets are coming off a second consecutive first-round exit from the NBA playoffs after losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in six games.

With the Rockets now going home early in two consecutive seasons, NBA insiders appear to have a major question that the Rockets must answer.

On Tuesday, several NBA insiders at ESPN answered the biggest question for each NBA team heading into 2026, and the question posed for Houston was quite interesting. Will the Rockets finally advance past the first round of the playoffs?

The insiders did note that Rockets had key injuries to point guard Fred VanVleet and center Steven Adams which did put Houston in a tough position when it came to their depth, and specifically initiating the offense.

In particular, insider Michael C. Wright answered this question, and he talked about the fact that with VanVleet out of the lineup, it did create opportunities for the Rockets players to develop, which included Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Tari Eason, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith Jr. in that group.

With that said, Wright also posed some other questions mainly hinting at the points of whether or not that development will carry over into 2026 or if VanVleet was truly the missing piece for this team.

Ultimately, the Rockets do have to figure that aspect out, which is critical, but also, forward Kevin Durant only played in one game during the postseason series, which proved to be too much to overcome for Houston.

Durant is now heading into his second year with the Rockets and just turned 38 years old, so he may not have a ton of time left at the peak of his performance, but he did have a strong 2025 campaign, so maybe he will continue to play well into his 40s. Regardless, Houston has to take advantage of the time they have with Durant.

On that note, head coach Ime Udoka is now entering his fourth season with the Rockets and to this point, his time with Houston has included two exits in the first-round as well as missing the playoffs once. 

While the Western Conference is competitive, the Rockets have to be able to respond and get over the hurdle, so to speak, because their window with Durant is now, and in addition to that, they will have to start making decisions on the young talent they have, which could get very expensive.

Just like last year, the Rockets success may very well come down to the health of this team, but in particular to VanVleet, Durant, Sengun, and Thompson who are the most important players on this team and have a lot to do with how the Rockets perform on both ends.

When it comes to answering the question, I do not believe the Rockets have a first round problem because last year they did not have two of their top players healthy and the year before they ran into a tough and gritty Golden State Warriors team.

Heading into 2026, the Rockets have to get past the first round, especially if they are fully healthy and have had young players progress as well veterans play to their capability.

So, as Houston prepares for this season, I say that they do not have a first round problem in the playoffs, however, if they find themselves going home early again, the conversation could be much different next offseason.