As Kevin Durant enters his age-38 season, legendary precedents from LeBron James and Michael Jordan reveal how Houston must balance superstar production with strategic rest to ignite a postseason run.
Kevin Durant turns 38 on September 29, putting the Houston Rockets’ championship window under a very obvious microscope. While we can’t expect a 2013-14 KD to magically reappear, the team still needs its best player available, efficient and dangerous when the schedule gets serious.
So what can we, or should we, expect this season? NBA history offers some encouraging examples.
LeBron James averaged nearly 29 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists in 55 games during his age-38 season with the Los Angeles Lakers. The scoring was still there, but the missed time was part of the equation.
Karl Malone played 80 games for the Utah Jazz at 38 and averaged 22.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Michael Jordan returned from retirement at the same age and put up 22.9 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists in 60 games for the Washington Wizards. They were no longer carrying teams exactly the way they had during their primes, but both remained high-level players.
The flipside of aging looks a little different. Vince Carter was 38 during the 2014-15 season and averaged 5.8 points in 66 games as a reserve in Memphis. Dirk Nowitzki remained a starter at 38, averaging 14.2 points and 6.5 rebounds in 54 games for Dallas during the 2016-17 season. Age catches up with everybody. It just does not show up the same way for every player.
Durant should land closer to the LeBron, Malone and Jordan end of that group than the Carter example. He averaged 26 points in 78 games during his first Houston season and remains one of basketball’s most difficult individual covers. At 6-foot-11, he can get to the same spots, shoot over smaller defenders and make teams pay when they load up on the Rockets’ younger creators.
Still, Houston can’t waste the season treating him like an unlimited resource like they did his first year in red. Amen Thompson, Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard all have real responsibility here. Each needs to take on more of the regular-season burden, whether that means creating offense or stabilizing lineups when Durant sits.
Durant will likely still be an elite scorer at 38, if superstar history proves true. Houston’s job this year is to protect him through the regular season, let its younger core take on more responsibility and have him fresh enough to decide games when the playoffs arrive.
Oh, and a happy early birthday to the one and only Kevin Durant.
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