With the Clippers' unprotected pick in hand, Oklahoma City eyes elite prospects and All-NBA upside. Will the lottery deliver a defensive powerhouse or favor Western Conference rivals?
The 2026 NBA lottery is scheduled for 2 p.m. Central on May 10. Although the Thunder won 64 games this regular season, they have a lottery ticket via the Clippers’ unprotected first-round pick.
Check out Oklahoma City’s best and worst outcomes of the 2026 NBA lottery.
Thunder Strike Gold
Here’s a breakdown of where the Clippers pick can land:
- 1st overall – 1.5% chance
- 2nd overall – 1.7%
- 3rd overall – 1.9%
- 4th overall – 2.1%
- 12th overall – 86.1%
- 13th overall – 6.7%
- 14th overall – 0.1%
In other words, Oklahoma City owns a 7.2% chance of receiving a top-four pick and earning the right to select AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer or Caleb Wilson. All four prospects possess All-NBA upside, so walking away from the 2026 NBA Draft with any of them would be a heist.
Caleb Wilson, in particular, is a perfect fit for the Thunder. He's a hyper-elite defender who rebounds, passes well and plays with an edge. Wilson’s 6’10” frame and athleticism also fill a need for an Oklahoma City roster that lacks massive, rangy forwards. Popular NBA comparisons for the UNC product include Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam, although these are obviously ceiling scenarios.
Eastern Conference Dominates the Lottery
The East and West have each won three of the past six lotteries, although the talent discrepancy is wide. The trio of Cade Cunningham, Paolo Banchero and Zaccharie Risacher does not inhabit the same universe as the trio of Victor Wembanyama, Anthony Edwards and Cooper Flagg. Additionally, 10 of the past 18 top-three picks went to the West, and the East’s top-three prospects were also worse.
Hopefully the lottery favors the East because there are too many loaded young teams in the West. For the Thunder’s sake, teams like Sacramento, Brooklyn, Washington and Chicago need to receive top-four picks.
Overall, the East owns a 57.8% chance to win the first overall pick.
Mavericks’ Lottery Luck Continues
Dallas had a 1.8% chance at the first overall pick last season yet still won the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. The Mavericks securing a young co-star for Flagg in the 2026 NBA Draft would be a nightmare for the West, especially since this upcoming lottery is likely the last chance Dallas has to draft a superstar because the franchise does not control its own first-round picks for the foreseeable future. Oklahoma City owns swap rights on the Mavericks’ 2028 pick, so Flagg landing a co-star would slash the value of this asset.
Dallas has a 6.7% chance to snag the first overall pick and a 28.9% chance to land a top-four pick.