Bring a pillow to the couch, as the Thunder’s matchup against the Clippers tips off at 11 p.m. ET on NBC. Given that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP and Finals MVP, the contest is a stark reminder to Clippers fans in attendance of who Los Angeles traded away in 2019. 

The injury report is unfortunately full for this contest. Oklahoma City will be without Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams, Nikola Topić and Thomas Sorber, while Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell and Jaylin Williams are questionable. On the bright side, Chet Holmgren returns after a three-game absence. 

It’s the second night of a back-to-back for Los Angeles, so Kawhi Leonard and Bradley Beal may miss the game due to load management. 

Here are three key matchups to monitor that will largely determine whether the Thunder remain unbeaten. 

Thunder’s 3-Point Shooting 

The Clippers defend the paint at a high level with Ivica Zubac and Brook Lopez composing its center rotation, but the defense subsequently gives up a ton of perimeter shots. For example, 45.9% of opponents’ field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc, which is the 5th-largest rate in the NBA. 

Teams that deploy stretch-fives are able to exploit Los Angeles’ centers, and Oklahoma City certainly qualifies. Chet Holmgren is shooting 41.7% from deep on six attempts per game, while Jaylin Williams is off to a shaky efficiency start but can sink three-pointers as well as any other big. 

Los Angeles’ defense also surrenders the 3rd-largest frequency of possessions that run through a shooter coming off a screen. Enter Isaiah Joe. He’s knocking down 42.1% of his triples and averaging a monstrous 9.5 attempts per game. 

Overall, Oklahoma City’s 3-point shooting is a crucial area for the reigning champs in this matchup, especially for Holmgren, Williams and Joe. 

Thunder’s Isolation Defense 

13.1% of the Clippers’ offensive possessions are via isolation – this easily leads the league. James Harden and Kawhi Leonard both rank in the top five of isolation possessions per game and are responsible for 88% of Los Angeles’ total isolation possessions. 

Luguentz Dort earned his NBA stripes by defending Harden in the 2020 playoffs, and he remains one of the best Harden defenders across the association. If Dort cannot suit up, then Cason Wallace will need to have a phenomenal defensive game. 

Who is guarding Leonard? Jalen Williams would get the nod, but he’s still recovering from offseason surgery. The obvious replacements are Alex Caruso and Chet Holmgren. It will be interesting to see whether Holmgren’s length shuts down Leonard’s paint scoring. 

If Oklahoma City holds its own on an island, then the team owns an excellent chance of moving to 8-0 (a franchise record). 

Half-Court Offense 

The Clippers and Thunder rank 29th and 30th in transition frequency. It should be a slow, controlled contest. 

Therefore, whichever team executes half-court offense to a higher degree will likely win the contest because transition points are projected to be scarce. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most consistent scorer in the NBA, so the Thunder have an advantage if chaos is stripped from the game.