Wembanyama's return and the Spurs' perimeter firepower meet OKC's depth. Crucial matchups will decide who advances to the NBA Cup Finals.
The Western side of the NBA Cup Semifinals features a battle between San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Victor Wembanayama is expected to play after being sidelined since Nov. 14 with a calf injury, while Isaiah Hartenstein also returns to action for the first time since Nov. 26. The only rotation player missing this contest is Isaiah Joe.
Check out three key matchups below that will largely determine which team advances to the NBA Cup Finals against either Orlando or New York.
Chet Holmgren vs. Victor Wembanyama
If Chet Holmgren continues to impact basketball games at this level, then he should make an All-NBA team this season. The former second overall pick has made a massive scoring leap in terms of his efficiency and self-creation chops. As a result, Holmgren currently ranks ninth across the NBA in the amount of extra points added by field goal attempts made above league average, per Basketball Reference.
But Victor Wembanyama is one of the few defenders who can actually deter Holmgren’s shot. If Wembanyama accomplishes this feat, then Oklahoma City largely loses its safety valve when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets doubled or the shot clock winds down.
The same could be said on the other end of the court. Wembanyama is a dynamic scorer who often bails out the Spurs’ offense. Holmgren limiting Wembanyama’s scoring around the basket would be a significant blow to San Antonio.
Spurs’ Perimeter Shooting
The cleanest path to orchestrating an upset is getting hot from deep. It’s especially the best route against the Thunder because 44.5% of field goal attempts against Oklahoma City are triples, which is the fourth-highest rate in the NBA.
Devin Vassell, De’Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie and Harrison Barnes are currently combining to shoot 39.9% from beyond the arc on 25.1 attempts per game. San Antonio needs them to continue this level of volume and efficiency in order to avoid having to challenge Oklahoma City’s stellar interior defense all game.
Spurs’ Bench
Oklahoma City has the deepest roster in the NBA and is the healthiest it has been all season. But the Spurs also boast a dangerous second unit. Dylan Harper looks like a future All-Star given his ability to attack the paint and control the pace. Champagnie and Keldon Johnson can both hit tough shots at any given moment.
Finally, Luke Kornet ranks third across the league in rim point saved per 75 possessions, per Basketball Index. He’s also making quality passes and sinking shots when given the chance.
If the Spurs neutralize the Thunder’s typical bench advantage, then this matchup suddenly becomes far closer than expected.