With key players sidelined, who will exploit the Warriors' weaknesses? See how the Thunder's defense and Holmgren's scoring will dictate this pivotal road clash.
Oklahoma City hits the road to face Golden State at 10 p.m. Central. The Thunder cruised to a 24-point win the last time these teams played each other on Nov. 11.
Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso are sidelined for this contest, so the Thunder will likely be limited to a nine-man rotation tonight. On the other side, the Warriors are without Stephen Curry and Al Horford, while Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green may join them.
Check out three key matchups for this rematch.
Thunder’s Transition Defense
According to Cleaning the Glass, Golden State scores 108.5 points per 100 possessions when Stephen Curry is not on the court. Only the Mavericks and Pacers produce less pace-adjusted points.
The offensive woes are largely due to the Warriors’ lack of shot-creators. It struggles mightily to generate quality looks without Curry’s gravity, especially when Butler faces elite rim protectors like Chet Holmgren.
Therefore, the Thunder need to limit fast-break points and force the Warriors to consistently create shots in the half court. This strategy would expose Golden State’s weak offense across the course of the game because bad shot quality adds up over time.
Oklahoma City’s defense allows the third-fewest transition field goal attempts per game, along with the lowest transition field goal percentage. It should be difficult for Golden State to run and gun, especially since the Thunder may be less focused on offensive rebounds due to Hartenstein’s injury.
Chet Holmgren’s Scoring
Holmgren is a matchup nightmare for Golden State’s frontcourt because it lacks massive forwards and towering rim protectors. The Warriors are simply too undersized to handle his length, mobility and catch radius.
Across five career complete games against Golden State, Holmgren has averaged 0.75 points per minute on 67.7% shooting from the field and 46.6% shooting from deep. That’s equivalent to 27 points per 36 minutes, which is on par with Cade Cunningham and Austin Reaves’ current production.
Overall, a strong scoring night from Holmgren would make it extremely difficult for the Warriors to keep pace with the Thunder.
Thunder’s Perimeter Defense
As per usual, the Warriors lead the NBA in 3-point attempt rate and are currently the only team who takes more 3-point attempts than 2-point attempts.
Staying attached to shooters and making hard closeouts are two areas that Mark Daigneault must emphasize to his defense. If the Thunder deter an onslaught of triples from occurring, then it should win this contest.