To pull off the upset, the Lakers must survive the turnover margin and contain the Thunder’s perimeter shooters.
The Thunder and Lakers kick off their second-round series at 7:30 p.m. Central on NBC. Luka Dončić and Jalen Williams remain sidelined, although Williams is seemingly much closer to a return than Dončić.
Check out three key matchups for this Game 1 clash.
Turnovers
A league-leading 18.5% of the Thunder’s total points came off turnovers during the regular season. Their defense is long, physical, relentless and hyper-connected on rotations and switches.
Protecting the basketball against the champs is an uphill climb for even the best and most cautious offenses, which does not bode well for a Lakers squad that struggled mightily with turnovers in the first round. LeBron James’ handle is loose at this point in his career, while Austin Reaves is prone to bad passes and live ball turnovers. Dončić’s injury also leads to more on-ball possessions for Los Angeles’ role players, thus thrusting them into roles above their pay grades.
Los Angeles committed 70 turnovers compared to 48 for Oklahoma City during their four regular season matchups. That’s a difference of 5.5 possessions per game, which is more catastrophic than it seems.
Look for Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso to spearhead the Thunder’s turnover creation in this series.
Deandre Ayton’s Impact
Ayton averaged 5.8 points and 4.8 rebounds per game against Oklahoma City this season, and the Lakers were outscored by 72 points across his 97 minutes.
It’s a horrific matchup for the former first overall pick because he’s a low-activity big who is prone to fumbling passes and needs to score around the basket to make an impact. The Thunder feature the best interior defense across the association and excel at swiping passes, so it could get ugly again for Ayton.
On the other end, can he elevate his rim deterrence and defend Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s high ball screens at a high level? If not, then the Lakers defense will likely crumble.
Thunder’s 3-Point Shooting
Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell should generate paint touches with ease against a suspect Lakers perimeter defense, but expect Los Angeles to sag and collapse. This will lead to good looks on catch-and-shoot triples for Oklahoma City, but are the shots going to fall? The champs only knocked down 35.5% of their catch-and-shoot triples against Phoenix. Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso are names to monitor in this department.
Overall, a strong series from beyond the arc may lead to a sweep.