Oklahoma City is coming off a pair of impressive wins against Western Conference contenders and now owns a five-game winning streak. It continues its road trip against the Heat, who recently lost to the Thunder by 12 points on Jan. 11. 

Isaiah Hartenstein is set to miss his eleventh consecutive game, while Miami will be without Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Davion Mitchell. Plus, Tyler Herro and Nikola Jovic are questionable to play. 

Here are three key matchups to monitor for this rematch. 

During the previous matchup, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 29 points on 10-of-19 shooting from the field and dished out eight assists. The box score did not do his performance justice, as it was a masterclass from the reigning league MVP. He got to his spots at will and toyed with Miami’s defense. 

Davion Mitchell is an elite perimeter defender who saw 31 minutes in this contest. The Heat could not slow Gilgeous-Alexander down with him on the court, and now its defense is without Mitchell in the rematch. Someone needs to step up for Miami and make Gilgeous-Alexander at least work for every bucket and dime. 

Unfortunately for the Heat, there are plenty of weak points to exploit. Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Kasparas Jakucionis have no chance of staying in front of Gilgeous-Alexander, and Oklahoma City is content to hunt mismatches. If the Thunder’s superstar puts on a show, then it will be difficult for the Heat to pull off the upset. 

44.1% of field goal attempts against the Thunder’s defense have come from beyond the arc, which is the sixth-highest rate in the NBA. This is not by accident. Oklahoma City loves to protect the paint and make role players knock down jump shots. 

As an off-ball shooter, Andrew Wiggins benefits from this strategy in terms of his volume and shot quality. In the Heat’s previous matchup against the Thunder, he scored 23 points and made 7-of-10 shots from deep. 

If Miami’s offense is going to consistently score against the Thunder’s elite defense, then it needs another monstrous shooting performance from Wiggins. It’s worth noting that he typically delivers. Wiggins has averaged 18 points per game on 41.7% shooting from deep across his past 15 games against Oklahoma City. He’s a certified Thunder slayer. 

Miami leads the NBA in pace and ranks fifth in percentage of its total points that comes via fast breaks. Therefore, it would behoove the Thunder to slow down the game and force the Heat to consistently generate great half-court shots. 

Oklahoma City boasts an elite transition defense and held Miami to eight fast break points in the last matchup. It was a huge reason behind why the Heat only scored 112 points. Another strong defensive performance in transition would be a boon for the Thunder.