The Thunder responded to the Jalen Williams injury news by blowing out the Cavaliers, and the reigning champs will look to keep the momentum going against the Bucks at 8:30 p.m. Central on ESPN. 

Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso are out for this contest, while Jaylin Williams’ status is murky. On the other side, Myles Turner and Kevin Porter Jr. are both questionable to play. 

Here are three key matchups for this game between the Thunder and Bucks. 

The former Finals MVP is averaging 28.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game while shooting 64.5% from the field. He ranks third across the NBA in win shares per 48 minutes and estimated plus-minus (EPM), which is arguably the best catch-all advanced metric. 

Milwaukee outscores opponents by 6.3 points per 100 possessions with Antetokounmpo on the court. He’s successfully carrying a barren roster on his shoulders by elevating his teammates. The offense predictably collapses when Antetokounmpo takes a breather, and opponents pummel the Bucks by 11 points per 100 possessions during these minutes according to Cleaning the Glass. 

Oklahoma City’s bench is in prime position to win this game. If Ajay Mitchell and company can bully the Bucks during the non-Antetokoumpo minutes, then it will be difficult for Milwaukee to keep pace barring an outlier performance from their starters. Antetokounmpo typically plays around 30 minutes per game, so the Thunder’s bench has roughly 18 minutes to do irreversible damage. 

One of the cleanest ways to pull off an upset in the modern NBA is to convincingly win the three-point battle. Milwaukee’s offense ranks ninth in three-point attempt rate and second in three-point percentage, so it is no stranger to lighting up teams from beyond the arc. 

This is concerning for Oklahoma City because its defense is designed to deter paint attempts at the expense of three-point attempts via role players. Ryan Rollins, A.J. Green and Gary Trent Jr. are significant threats to cook the Thunder. Plus, Myles Turner and Bobby Portis qualify as stretch bigs who can pull Oklahoma City’s bigs away from the basket. 

A strong shooting night from the Bucks could make this nationally televised game closer than expected. 

Holmgren decimated Cleveland to the tune of 28 points, eight rebounds and two assists on 11-of-16 shooting from the field. He also dominated as a rim protector and racked up a pair of blocks. 

Oklahoma City needs Holmgren to be the second option with Jalen Williams sidelined, so another aggressive scoring night would be a boon for the offense. Meanwhile, the Thunder will rely on Holmgren to limit Antetokounmpo’s paint scoring and prevent Milwaukee from grabbing too many offensive rebounds. 

Mark Daigneault is asking a lot from Holmgren with the team battling key injuries, but he’s capable of delivering.