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Can Dallas's injured roster compete? Thunder's defense and SGA's scoring dominance will be tested in this road matchup.

The Thunder won an overtime thriller against the Nuggets that boosted Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP chances. Oklahoma City now begins a three-game road trip, and the first stop is Dallas. 

Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Cooper Flagg and Marvin Bagley III remain sidelined for their respective teams, while P.J. Washington has a doubtful designation.  

Here are key matchups to monitor for this once great rivalry. 

Mavericks’ 3-Point Shooting 

Dallas lacks playmaking and self-created scoring due to injuries, so consistently generating great looks against Oklahoma City’s elite defense is highly unlikely. Therefore, the Mavericks need a three-point eruption in order to keep this game within striking distance entering the fourth quarter. 

Max Christie is shooting 41.9% from deep on 5.7 attempts per game, and Klay Thompson is at 38.1% on 7.6 attempts per game. They can get hot on jumpers and burn late rotations. It’s bleak beyond them in terms of efficient shooters on the roster, so Dallas desperately needs strong performances from Christie and Thompson tonight. 

Cason Wallace is the Thunder’s best off-ball chaser. Look for him to defend this duo during his minutes rather than the typical pick-and-roll scorers. 

Thunder’s Defensive Rebounding 

Given the Mavericks’ lack of playmakers, it’s probable that its offense mostly settles for tough jumpers. Oklahoma City cannot allow Dallas to compensate by controlling the glass and scoring second-chance points. 

Chet Holmgren is coming off a 21-rebound performance against Denver, and he will once again be needed to vacuum rebounds. Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams are also essential. 

Who are the biggest threats on the Mavericks? Moussa Cisse is averaging 5.7 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions, which ranks 6th across the NBA (min. 300 minutes). Veterans Daniel Gafford and Dwight Powell are names to monitor, too. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Scoring 

The reigning league MVP returned to action versus the Nuggets after missing the past nine games. He scored 36 points on 12-of-29 shooting from the field and dished out nine assists while only committing one turnovers. Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot was rusty, but his impact was obvious. 

Dallas does not have good defensive options to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander, so it shouldn’t be too difficult for him to get to his spots unless the Mavericks blitzes and doubles him every possession. 

Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander finding his rhythm likely makes the game a slaughter because Oklahoma City’s roster is vastly better than Dallas’ roster. An MVP performance combined with superior depth is too much to overcome.