Oklahoma City is coming off a close loss to Indiana despite stellar performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. They combined to score 72 points on 59.5% shooting from the field. 

Next up for the Thunder is a home game against the Raptors. Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell and Alex Caruso remain sidelined, while Aaron Wiggins is questionable to play. 

Here are three key matchups to monitor. 

Toronto ranks 24th in three-point attempt rate and 26th in three-point percentage, per NBA.com. It clearly does not emphasize or excel at spacing the court and knocking down triples. On the flip side, 46.2% of the Raptors’ total points has come from inside the paint. That’s the fifth-highest percentage in the league. 

Oklahoma City’s interior defense will be under a spotlight in this matchup. Chet Holmgren leads the NBA in rim points saved per 75 possessions according to Basketball Index (min. 500 minutes played), so the unit should be fine when he plays. 

However, Jaylin Williams and Branden Carlson have not proven to be reliable interior defenders, and Hartenstein is injured. The dropoff in rim protection when Holmgren rests will subsequently be massive in this matchup. This weakness was a huge reason behind why the Pacers pulled off the upset. 

Toronto also ranks 12th in offensive rebound percentage, and Oklahoma City has been crushed on the glass since Hartenstein’s injury. Boxing out and preventing put-backs are clear goals for the Thunder. 

Overall, the game likely boils down to how well the defense protects the paint and rebounds the basketball during the non-Holmgren minutes. Unfortunately, the outlook is grim in these areas. 

Although Toronto is in the bottom third of pace, its offense ranks fourth across the league in transition points per game. Oklahoma City will also look to capitalize on possessions when the Raptors’ defense is not set in order to keep afloat during the non-Gilgeous-Alexander minutes. 

But it will be tough sledding for both teams. The Thunder and Raptors surrender the fewest and second-fewest transition points per game across the association, so both defenses are elite at snuffing out these high quality shots. 

If one of these squads can break through and comfortably win the transition battle, then it provides a significant advantage to the victor. Toronto’s offensive rebounding is an X Factor. Racking up second-chance points allows its defense to get set. On the other hand, crashing the glass but not securing the offensive rebound can lead to quick outlet passes and great transition looks for Oklahoma City. 

The game against Indiana showed that heroic performances from Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren were still not enough to secure the win. Two players can only do so much.

Someone needs to step up and give the Thunder close to 20 points. Isaiah Joe is the top candidate for this task. He’s capable of racking up buckets from deep, and Toronto’s defense is prone to giving up a lot of triples. 

Wiggins is another prime candidate if he plays given his outside shooting and self-created scoring chops. Perhaps Kenrich Williams gets the job done? The veteran occasionally packs a scoring punch off the bench. 

It does not matter who fulfills the third scorer duties as long as someone does it.