Oklahoma City travels to face Toronto at 6:30 p.m. Central. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell remain out, while Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso are questionable to play. 

Can the Thunder avenge its two-point loss to the Raptors in January? Here are three key matchups to monitor. 

The offense severely lacks self-created scoring and rim pressure with Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Mitchell sidelined. However, a strong night from beyond the arc can help mask these weaknesses. Toronto’s defense surrenders the ninth-highest three-point attempt rate (42.9%) in the NBA, so Oklahoma City should get plenty of opportunities. 

Isaiah Joe enters this contest on fire. Since the Feb. 5 trade deadline, he has averaged 18.5 points per game while shooting 55.6% from deep on 7.5 attempts per game. The sharpshooter is also averaging 30 points per 75 possessions on a blistering 66.2% true shooting when he shares the court with Jared McCain. Now, the sample size is only a minuscule 46 minutes, but they complement each other greatly because of their gravity and quick releases. 

If Joe and McCain’s hot streaks end tonight, then it’s difficult to envision Oklahoma City cracking 100 points (especially if Holmgren winds up missing the contest). 

Oklahoma City’s defense forces turnovers at the third-highest rate in the league, while Toronto’s defense does so at the fourth-highest rate. Both teams also rank top six in defensive rating and deflections. This does not bode well for the Thunder because it has struggled with turnovers since Gilgeous-Alexander’s injury and the Raptors generally take care of the basketball. 

Losing the points via turnovers battle by a significant margin would be a nightmare for Oklahoma City because its offense already projects to be mediocre at best. 

Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso are players to monitor. They rank fourth and fifth across the NBA (min. 500 minutes) in Basketball Index’s metric Defensive Playmaking, which “measures a player’s ability to disrupt offenses through steals, deflections, blocks and charges drawn per 75 possessions. Toronto’s best players in this metric are Collin Murray-Boyles (25th) and Scottie Barnes (33rd). 

It’s likely that Dort will primarily guard Ingram, which is concerning for the Raptors. Since Oct. 2023, Dort has defended Ingram for 283 possessions and held him to 12.5 points per 75 possessions on 37.9% true shooting. Yikes! 

Dort uses his strength to keep Ingram away from the basket and force him to settle for tough midrange jumpers. Although Ingram has the talent to knock down these jumpers, it’s not a recipe for long-term success based on shot quality. 

Overall, a defensive masterclass from Dort would go a long way for the Thunder tonight.