Can OKC's dynamic offense exploit Los Angeles’ defensive weaknesses? Key matchups reveal if the Thunder can secure a statement home win.
The Thunder hosts the Lakers at 8:30 p.m. Central on Amazon Prime. Alex Caruso is questionable to play due to an illness, while Marcus Smart is out.
Which MVP candidate will pick up a statement win? Check out three key matchups for this highly anticipated contest.
Thunder’s 3-Point Shooting
According to NBA.com, the Lakers’ defense has surrendered the 8th-highest paint attempt rate and the 11th-highest paint field goal percentage since the All-Star break. It bleeds interior shots because the roster lacks elite perimeter defenders who can stay in front of ball handlers, especially with Smart sidelined. Deandre Ayton’s middling rim deterrence and the team’s poor level of athleticism in general do not help matters.
The Thunder’s offense excels at getting downhill and loves to hunt mismatches. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell will feast if there are clear lanes to the basket and massive pockets of space behind their primary defender. Therefore, the Lakers may have no choice but to aggressively help off shooters and set up its defensive structure similar to a boxes and elbows strategy. This approach should prevent a decent amount of paint attempts from Gilgeous-Alexander and company, but look for Oklahoma City to consistently generate wide-open triples via kick-outs.
Can the reigning champs capitalize? They are making just 35.9% of their catch-and-shoot triples since the break. It’s the biggest X Factor in this matchup.
Luguentz Dort’s Defense
Luka Dončić is absolutely rolling right now. Since the All-Star break, he has averaged 35.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 2.7 stocks per game on 62.2% true shooting. Oklahoma City needs to make Dončić work for every shot and force him to settle for contested jump shots.
Enter Luguentz Dort. He has the strength to fight through screens and steer Dončić away from the hoop. However, Dort is a physical defender, and Dončić leads the NBA in free throw attempts per game. There’s a decent chance that Dort gets into foul trouble early.
Thunder’s Transition Offense
The champs lead the NBA in points per transition possession, and Los Angeles’ defense has given up the 10th-highest transition frequency this season. Oklahoma City has the athleticism edge, so it needs to push the pace off of defensive rebounds.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are names to monitor in this department. They are dangerous in the open court and capable of going coast to coast off the dribble.