Robinson's offensive boards and Wallace's defense define this high-stakes matchup.
Oklahoma City hosts Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks at 6:30 p.m. Central on NBC. The reigning champs are at full strength, while Miles McBride is questionable and Landry Shamet remains sidelined.
Check out three key matchups for this potential NBA Finals preview.
Mitchell Robinson’s Impact
Although Mitchell Robinson only plays around 20 minutes per game, he is one of the Knicks’ most impactful players.
New York records an offensive rebound on an immense 37.7% of its missed shots with Robinson on the court. The veteran is grabbing 8.1 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions, which would surpass Steven Adams for the highest single-season rate since per 100 possession stats were first tracked in 1974.
Oklahoma City needs to box out Robinson at all times and not let him extend possessions via put-backs or kick-outs, especially since New York shoots 38.7% on catch-and-shoot triples. Robinson’s size and rim deterrence will also be key for New York in terms of stopping Oklahoma City’s drivers from attacking the paint.
It may be wise for Mark Daigneault to have either Isaiah Hartenstein or a double-big lineup on the court during all of Robinson’s minutes.
Cason Wallace’s Defense
Jalen Brunson’s shiftiness and low center of gravity make him a difficult cover for Luguentz Dort, who thrives at guarding scorers with power and size.
Enter Cason Wallace. The Kentucky product leads the league in steals and is on pace to make an All-Defensive team. Wallace excels at marking smaller players who can change directions quickly like Brunson.
He also has a history of shutting down New York’s superstar. Since joining the NBA, Wallace has defended Brunson for 103 possessions and held him to 16.7 points and 6.5 assists per 75 possessions on 41.6% true shooting.
The last matchup definitely went in Wallace’s favor, as he racked up four steals and helped hold Brunson to 16 points on 5-of-18 shooting from the field during Oklahoma City’s three-point win over New York on March 4.
Thunder’s 3-Point Shooting
The champs have struggled to knock down triples recently. Can they bounce back against a Knicks defense that has surrendered the 3rd-highest three-point attempt rate (45.3%) since the All-Star break? Isaiah Joe and Jared McCain erupting from deep would be a boon for the Thunder’s offense and alleviate some of the scoring burden from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s shoulders. Chet Holmgren's shooting will also be important in double-big lineups.