SGA returns as Thunder clashes with Nuggets. Key matchups determine if OKC's rim pressure or Denver's outside shooting prevails in this playoff preview.
Oklahoma City hosts Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets at 8:30 p.m. Central on ESPN. Both teams are not at full strength, as Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson remain sidelined. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returns to action after missing the past nine games with an abdominal strain, so it’s a battle between MVP candidates.
Check out key matchups to monitor for this potential Western Conference Finals preview.
Thunder’s Rim Pressure
Opponents have converted 70.1% of their shots inside the restricted area against the Nuggets this season, which is the fourth-highest rate across the association per NBA.com. Denver desperately needs Gordon and Watson back in order to be competent at protecting the basket.
Gilgeous-Alexander is set up for a monstrous scoring night, especially since Watson represents the best chance at containing the reigning league MVP at the point of attack. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein should also find success via lobs and rolls to the basket.
Denver’s inability to get stops is not confined to the half court. It also surrenders 1.2 points per transition possession – only Brooklyn is currently worse. If Oklahoma City can successfully get to the rim in transition and the half court, then its offense should dominate.
Jamal Murray’s Scoring
Jokić is capable of posting numbers against anyone, even the Thunder’s elite interior defense. But he needs a co-star for Denver to win this matchup, and Jamal Murray has an uphill climb.
Luguentz Dort has defended Murray for 260 possessions since Oct. 2023 and held him to 12.7 points per 75 possessions on 48.2% true shooting. Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso are just as relentless and disruptive as perimeter defenders.
To make matters worse, Murray left the Nuggets’ last game early due to an illness. He’s questionable to play versus the Thunder and likely will not be at full strength should he suit up.
Overall, a poor performance from Murray may be too much for the Nuggets to overcome.
Nuggets’ 3-Point Shooting
If the Nuggets’ perimeter shooting falters, then the Thunder can double Jokić inside the paint without lethal consequences. Denver is therefore relying on Cameron Johnson and Tim Hardaway Jr. to knock down shots. They are currently combining to shoot 40.7% from deep on 11.4 attempts per game this season.
Look for Oklahoma City to devote plenty of defensive attention to this duo while simultaneously funneling jump shots to inconsistent shooters like Christian Braun and Julian Strawther.