Powered by Roundtable

SGA faces the Pacers after a historic game. Can Holmgren step up amid injuries? Turnovers and threes will decide this crucial rematch.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put on a historic performance against Milwaukee to the tune of 40 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists on 16-of-19 shooting from the field. He gets a chance to follow up this performance against the team he defeated to win Finals MVP. 

Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins are all sidelined. Here are three key matchups for Oklahoma City’s rematch against Indiana. 

Chet Holmgren’s Scoring 

Gilgeous-Alexander is the most consistent scorer in the NBA. He’s good for at least 30 points on quality efficiency, and the reigning league MVP should feast against a horrific Pacers defense that surrenders the fifth-highest field goal percentage inside the arc. 

But Oklahoma City’s offense is in dire straits excluding his contributions. Williams and Mitchell are typically the lead ball handlers and playmakers when Gilgeous-Alexander rests. Both players are out tonight. Additionally, Hartenstein and Caruso’s passing keep the basketball moving and increase shot quality. Again, both players are out tonight. Wiggins provides a scoring punch off the bench. He's also out. 

Who is going to step up tonight with a monstrous performance? The obvious candidate is Chet Holmgen. He’s incredibly difficult to stop when he enters attack mode and gets to his spots because of his length and mobility. Bigs cannot match his foot speed, while wings cannot truly contest his shots. 

Unfortunately, Pascal Siakam is a tweener in the right ways. The veteran power forward has the length, mobility and strength to be a nuisance to Holmgren. If Siakam shuts down Holmgren’s scoring, then it could get ugly fast for Oklahoma City’s offense. 

It’s worth noting that Holmgren has only logged five possessions this season without Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Mitchell on the court. Tonight will be new territory for the big man. 

Pacers’ 3-Point Shooting 

Indiana is not afraid to rain down threes even if they are not falling, and Oklahoma City’s defense surrenders triples at a very high rate. Therefore, how well the Pacers shoot from deep is a massive X Factor in this matchup. 

Jay Huff is a name worth monitoring. He’s a stretch five who averages 4.4 three-point attempts per game. If Huff is red-hot from beyond the arc, then it will cap Oklahoma City’s ability to send help to the paint. 

Turnovers 

With the Thunder’s offense expected to be sluggish, winning the possession battle becomes crucial. Offensive rebounding is a massive weakness, so it cannot steal possessions in this manner. However, Oklahoma City’s defense thrives at forcing turnovers. Fast break points via turnovers are a must for the Thunder tonight.