Dort's defensive prowess vs. Booker, Williams' rim protection, and Carlson's crucial minutes could decide if the Suns get revenge on the surging Thunder.
The Thunder has bounced back from its disappointing Christmas Day loss and brings a four game winning streak to Phoenix. The last time these teams faced off was in the NBA Cup Quarterfinals, and Oklahoma City won that contest by 49 points. Can the Suns get revenge?
Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams and Ousmane Dieng remain sidelined, while Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe are questionable to play.
Check out three key matchups that will help determine the victor.
Luguentz Dort vs. Devin Booker
Devin Booker enters this contest averaging 25.7 points and 6.3 assists per game. Both figures lead the Suns, so limiting Booker’s impact is crucial.
Luguentz Dort will get the assignment, and he has historically dominated this battle. According to matchup data, Dort has guarded Booker for 97 possessions since the start of the 2023-24 season and held him to a mere 10 points.
If Dort once again shuts down Booker’s scoring, then Phoenix must heavily rely on its role players to make contested jumpers. That’s not an enviable situation despite the Suns currently ranking eighth in effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers.
Mark Williams’ Defense
Phoenix needs a monstrous defensive performance from Mark Williams because Oklahoma City’s offense is built on drives and paint pressure. Williams boasts a ridiculous 9-foot-9 standing reach, so he has the length to deter shots inside the arc.
Victor Wembanyama exposed how bland the Thunder’s offense can be when a mammoth rim protector lurks near the hoop. If Williams can follow Wembanyama’s blueprint, then Phoenix’s defense may be able to funnel shots to inconsistent shooters like Dort.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City also often relies on Chet Holmgren as a safety net because the Gonzaga product is able to shoot over the vast majority of players. Williams is one of the exceptions. Taking away Holmgren’s turnaround jumper would be a boon for the Suns.
Branden Carlson Minutes
With Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams injured, Oklahoma City needs Branden Carlson to play quality minutes at backup center.
Carlson is averaging 18.3 points and 8.4 rebounds per 75 possessions this season on superb 67% true shooting, so he plays well when given the chance. However, his defense has been shaky, especially when opponents force him to switch onto a guard or wing.
If Carlson turns in a solid two-way performance and holds down the fort when Holmgren rests, then Oklahoma City should be in an excellent position to win the game.