Rooting for the Clippers' downfall could land OKC a prime 2026 NBA Draft pick. Unpacking the path to securing a lottery ticket.
Defending the title is obviously the top priority for Oklahoma City, but its first playoff game does not begin until 2:30 p.m. Central on April 19. The Thunder’s opponent is still to be determined via the play-in tournament, yet it will be either the Suns, Trail Blazers, Clippers or Warriors.
In the meantime, the reigning champs can sit back and root for a lottery pick in the loaded 2026 NBA Draft. What do they need to happen to acquire a ticket?
Oklahoma City owns the Clippers’ unprotected first-round pick thanks to the infamous Paul George trade from the 2019 offseason. It’s the last piece that remains unsettled, so Los Angeles can finally move on from the trade after the 2026 Draft.
The Clippers must win two play-in games to reach the playoffs. It hosts Golden State in the first matchup before traveling to the loser of Portland versus Phoenix. If the Clippers do not win both games, then the team misses the playoffs and enters the lottery.
The lottery order is determined by regular season record, and Kawhi Leonard and company had the 12th-worst record in the NBA. Let’s assume Los Angeles does not make the playoffs. This means Oklahoma City has a 1.5% chance to win the first overall pick and a 7.2% chance to receive a top-four pick, thus guaranteeing one of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson.
Although the odds are slim, it's worth noting that the last two first overall picks were won by play-in teams. Dallas won the lottery despite only having a 1.8% chance, while Atlanta won with a 3% chance.
What happens if the champs do not strike gold? They would have an 86.1% chance at the 12th overall pick, a 6.7% chance at the 13th overall pick and a 0.1% chance at the 14th overall pick. These are still great outcomes given the depth of the 2026 NBA Draft.
Oklahoma City also has a great track record with the 12th overall pick. Nikola Topić, Jalen Williams and Steven Adams were all selected in this slot, and Sam Presti traded up from 12th to 10th to draft Cason Wallace. Plus, Mr. Thunder himself Nick Collison was taken 12th by the SuperSonics in 2003.
Overall, the Thunder should be rooting for the Clippers to lose in the play-in tournament. Los Angeles faces Golden State at 9 p.m. Central on April 15.