Oklahoma City’s general manager predicts a shift toward 1980s-style parity, forcing contenders to fight harder as revamped draft incentives eliminate easy nights and transform league-wide competitiveness.
The NBA’s new 3-2-1 Lottery rule is designed to change the way teams approach the draft, but Sam Presti believes its impact could be felt much more on the court.
The Oklahoma City Thunder general manager sees the possibility of a league where there are fewer nights off, especially when it comes to teams near the bottom of the standings.
Presti was asked about the potential on-court impact of the new system during his preseason press conference. While the lottery itself is obviously a major part of the conversation, he believes the bigger story could be what happens when teams have more incentive to compete throughout the entire season.
“Yeah, I think, again, going back to what I was saying in the open, competition is changing as much as all these other things in the industry, and I think that these types of changes will have a big effect long-term on the product of the league in a positive way,” Presti said.
That could change the feel of an NBA regular season.
For years, there have been stretches where teams near the bottom of the standings have had little reason to prioritize winning. With the new lottery system changing those incentives, Presti expects those teams to be much more competitive.
“Putting aside the solution of the way we’re going to do the draft and stuff like that for a second, because I think that’s a whole different story, but when we look at it, we think that we’re going to see NET ratings and records that are more similar to the ’80s, not because of style of play or anything like that, but the bottom of the league is going to be significantly stronger.”
In other words, the teams at the bottom may not look like traditional bottom feeders.
That could have a ripple effect throughout the standings. A team fighting for a playoff spot might not be able to count on an easy game against an opponent near the bottom of the league. A contender might have to play its starters longer in games that previously could have been put away early.
Presti believes that could even affect how coaches manage their rotations.
“I don’t know that you’re going to see teams with the NET ratings that you’ve seen in the past or even some of the records. I think it’s also going to stress rotations because games are going to go longer from a competitive standpoint.”
That’s an interesting wrinkle for a league that is already paying close attention to player workloads.
If more teams are genuinely competing for wins, there could be fewer opportunities to take a game for granted. The difference between a contender and a rebuilding team might not be as obvious on a nightly basis.
Of course, nobody knows exactly what the new system will produce until teams actually have to operate under it.
“There will be a lot to learn from this. I do think it will have a lot of second-order effects. Not saying any of them are negative, but I think it’ll be a bit of a calibration,” Presti said.
Still, he sees the potential changes as a positive development.
“But I do think the numbers are going to come down, and that’s a positive thing because we’re getting everybody incentivized in the right direction.”
There is one issue Presti believes still needs to be figured out.
Even with stronger incentives to compete, some teams are simply going to lose a lot of games. That’s part of the NBA. Not every organization can be a contender, and eventually those teams still need a realistic path toward acquiring the talent necessary to improve.
“And the next order of business will be to make sure the teams that are giving their best and are trying their hardest but still can’t win, because it’s very hard to win in the NBA, access somehow a fair access that’s not completely random to the best players in the draft. That’s the next order of business.”
For now, Presti isn’t looking at the changes with skepticism. He’s looking forward to seeing what they produce.
“But I couldn’t be more excited about the season. I think it’s going to be highly competitive.”
And if Presti is right, the biggest change might not be something fans notice when they look at the lottery standings.
It could be what happens every night when the ball goes up.
“But I don’t know that we’re going to be seeing 10 NET rating teams all over the place.”
