Unpacking OKC's potential three lottery picks: discover the intricate odds behind their dazzling 2026 NBA Draft haul.
By now, every basketball fan across the world has read or heard a phrase along the lines of "the Oklahoma City Thunder could end up with three lottery picks in the 2026 NBA Draft." And while that is technically true, the odds of OKC actually pulling off that lottery hat trick are a bit more complicated.
The Thunder potentially own up to four picks in next summer's much buzzed about draft. Those picks include the Philadelphia 76ers (protected 1-4), the Utah Jazz (protected 1-8) and the two most favorable of the Los Angeles Clippers (unprotected), Houston Rockets (protected 1-4) and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
If the season were to end today, before any ping pong balls were selected, OKC would walk away with the #5 pick, the #9 pick, the #19 pick and the #26 pick. Quite a haul, especially for a team currently dominating the rest of the league to the tune of a 22-1 record.
The Thunder draft pick with the most juice and highest likelihood of becoming a lottery pick is the one owed from the Clippers. Considering Los Angeles finished with 50 wins, claimed the #5 seed, took the Denver Nuggets to seven games in the postseason and added big name acquisitions in the offseason, most NBA pundits expected the Clippers to compete for homecourt advantage in the Western Conference Playoffs in 2026. But Bradley Beal was lost for the season due to a hip fracture, Brook Lopez appears to have finally met Father Time, John Collins has not been the answer as a Norman Powell scoring replacement and Chris Paul was handed his walking papers in the middle of the night at the Atlanta airport. It's a long season and maybe James Harden and Kawhi Leonard can turn things around, but this team looks old and exhausted most nights. Lottery Pick Odds: High.
The Jazz have been one of the surprise teams early this season. Most Thunder fans mentally wrote off the Utah draft pick because Will Hardy's squad was supposed to be the only tanking team in the West. But Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George didn't get the memo. The duo has led the Jazz to an 8-14 start, better than the Pelicans, Clippers, Kings and Mavs and only one win behind the Trail Blazers. The big question is: when and if will Danny Ainge will pull the plug on postseason possibilities and pivot to the tank? A rebuilding team like Utah needs all the top end talent they can get, and this is a loaded draft. One potential problem for Ainge: most of the teams ahead of Utah in the Tankathon reverse order are likely to continue tanking and a few more will be added to the mix. My guess is the Jazz will turn to the tank, but will it be too late? Lottery Pick Odds: Low.. but certainly possible.
The 76ers shut their season down early last year to avoid giving OKC a top 10 pick. And Philadelphia got off to a hot start this season. Things have cooled a bit in the City of Brotherly Love and they currently occupy the #6 seed in the East. But they are only half a game away from the #9 seed and a road play-in game. The availability of Joel Embiid and Paul George is a nightly question mark. Despite stellar play from Tyrese Maxey and rookie standout V. J. Edgecombe, it's no guarantee Philadelphia makes the postseason in the suddenly competitive East. Lottery Pick Odds: 50/50.
The Rockets are not giving OKC a pick in the top 14 of the draft. Lottery Pick Odds: Almost zero.
The Thunder are not a lottery team. Breaking news, I know. OKC owes the least favorable of the Clippers, Rockets and their own pick to Washington. Which means Washington may be getting the first and last pick in the 2026 draft. Lottery Pick Odds: Nope.