With luxury tax hurdles looming and the Spurs rising, Oklahoma City must capitalize on its peak roster depth to secure Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s historic legacy and back-to-back titles.
The Thunder begin their second-round series against the Lakers at 7:30 p.m. Central on May 5. If Oklahoma City advances, then its next opponent will be either San Antonio or Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals.
On the surface, this postseason does not qualify as a must-win championship for the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is only 27-years-old, while Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell and Cason Wallace are all 25 or younger. Alex Caruso (32) is the only main rotation player in his 30s.
Oklahoma City remains a very young team despite its success and maturity, so this core still has many years to come. Sam Presti can also tweak the roster to his liking given the team’s surplus of draft capital.
And yet, there are strong arguments for the 2026 championship being a must-win for the Thunder.
The roster is about to become very expensive because rookie max extensions for Holmgren and Williams begin next season. Oklahoma City is currently projected to be nearly $30 million over the second apron, which means a monstrous luxury tax bill for ownership. It’s likely that Presti needs to trim some salary, especially since roster spots are needed for one or multiple first-round picks in the upcoming draft. Luguentz Dort has an $18.2 million team option for next season, so he may be a salary cap casualty. Essentially, the 2026 Thunder will probably be the best and deepest roster of the Gilgeous-Alexander era.
On the flip side, Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs are emerging quickly. They will only get better from here, so winning another title before the Wembanyama era is essential. It’s also a bonus that the Nuggets, Celtics and Pacers are already eliminated – these teams can give the Thunder fits.
Additionally, the 2026 NBA Draft is loaded with superstar talent, and the flattened odds mean they can be dispersed to quality teams. Utah has a 45.1% chance of landing a top-four pick, which means one of AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson or Caleb Wilson. The Pacers have a 52.1% chance at one of these prospects, while the Mavericks own a 28.9% chance.
Finally, winning the championship would give Gilgeous-Alexander a massive legacy boost. He would join Michael Jordan and LeBron James as the only players in NBA history to have won both MVP and Finals MVP in consecutive seasons. The 2025-26 Thunder would also join the 1996-97 Bulls as the sole teams to post a 10+ regular season net rating and win the title in consecutive seasons. It’s truly a legacy-defining run for Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder if they manage to defend their title.