Holmgren's shot-blocking and Wallace's relentless pressure are wreaking havoc on the Suns.
Oklahoma City fended off a late surge from Phoenix and won Game 2 by 13 points. Excluding the first-round series that were a best-of-five format, 92.2% of teams in NBA history have gone on to win the series after securing a 2-0 series lead.
The champs are controlling the matchup via defense, as Phoenix has only scored 99.5 points per 100 possessions through two games. This level of production is putrid and reminiscent of the dead ball era (late 1990s to early 2000s).
Everybody on the Thunder deserves credit because the team’s precise rotations and lack of weak links are what makes the defense so stout. But Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace have been especially destructive in this series.
Holmgren is averaging three blocks per game and utilizing his length to alter shots near the basket. Phoenix’s paint attempt rate has remained stable compared to the regular season, but its offense has only made 46.4% of their paint attempts. For context, Brooklyn produced the lowest field goal percentage inside the paint during the regular season at 55.1%, while the Lakers led the NBA at 62.9%.
In other words, the current gap between Phoenix and the worst paint efficiency team is bigger than the gap between the worst and best paint efficiency teams. That’s how dominant Holmgren and the Thunder’s interior defense has been so far this series.
Meanwhile, the Suns have also committed a turnover on 21.4% of their possessions, which is light years above the worst regular season team in this department (Portland, 16.9%). Oklahoma City’s relentless ball pressure and timely swipes are causing Phoenix to panic and make mistakes.
Cason Wallace is the Suns’ worst nightmare, as the Kentucky product is averaging 4.5 steals per 75 possessions and blowing up actions. Excluding garbage time, Phoenix has scored a paltry 92.7 points per 100 possessions with Wallace on the court.
Overall, the champs are suffocating the Suns’ offense. Oklahoma City loses some of its lethality and versatility with Jalen Williams sidelined for the foreseeable future, but the unit remains extremely effective. If Phoenix winds up getting swept, then it will be because of the Thunder’s historically dominant defense.
Game 3 is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Central on April 25. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit, so it's a must-win contest for Phoenix. Look for Holmgren and Wallace to once again dictate terms when they are on the court.