SGA dominates, but Luka's scoring tear and Wemby's rise ignite a thrilling 2026 MVP debate. The race is still not over.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 2.1 turnovers per game this season. He’s doing so on 66.5% true shooting, which is absurdly efficient for a high-volume guard. For context, Stephen Curry was at 66.9% during his magical 2016 season.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to avoid wasted possessions like missed shots or turnovers allows Oklahoma City to win the possession battle frequently, especially since its defense already forces so many turnovers. He keeps the Thunder’s offense humming like a well-oiled machine, and his scoring consistency lets Mark Daigneault play numerous defensive aces who struggle to score (Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso) without feeling the offensive consequences.
The 2026 MVP race was mostly seen as finished when Gilgeous-Alexander picked apart Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets earlier this month to the tune of 35 points, nine rebounds, 15 assists and zero turnovers, including a game-winning triple. His next game against Boston was also a masterclass, thus removing lingering doubt.
Although Gilgeous-Alexander remains heavily favored to repeat as MVP, Luka Dončić’s recent play cannot be ignored. Dončić has averaged 40 points, 8.4 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game on 63.6% true shooting over his last nine contests. Los Angeles has won every game during this stretch, including a pair of victories against Houston that gives the Lakers the inside track for the three seed.
Los Angeles still trails Oklahoma City by 10 games. However, if Dončić continues to play at this level and narrows the team record gap to around six games by the end of the season, then some voters may decide to back the Slovenian. Gilgeous-Alexander would still likely win, yet it’s at least a conversation.
The Lakers and Thunder play on April 2 and April 7, so Dončić possesses two chances to bolster his MVP case by outdueling Gilgeous-Alexander.
Plus, Victor Wembanyama is lurking. San Antonio has won 21 of its past 23 games, and Wembanyama averaged 24.6 points, 11 rebounds and 3.3 assists during this span while being the most impactful defensive player in the world. If San Antonio manages to snatch the top seed, then Wembanyama may receive a decent amount of votes. The Spurs’ 4-1 record against the reigning champs this season definitely helps his case.
Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander will probably win MVP assuming he qualifies by playing at least six of the Thunder’s final 11 games. But the door is not shut like it seemed two weeks ago.