The regular season ends on April 12, so players have roughly a month to make their final push for accolades. Oklahoma City has numerous players in contention, including Chet Holmgren for Defensive Player of the Year. 

It’s clear how voters navigate this award based on recent history. 17 of the 25 winners this century suited up for teams that finished top three in defensive rating during their respective seasons, while 22 played for teams in the top five. 

Plus, 21 of the 25 winners were either a power forward or center. It’s not surprising to see bigs mostly claim the award because they have the highest impact in general. 

Where would Holmgren finish in Defensive Player of the Year voting if the season ended today? Before diving into the rankings, one metric to know is LEBRON Defensive Points Saved (LDPS). It’s a catch-all advanced metric by Basketball Index that “captures player defensive impact on team success on the aggregate, accounting for teammate and opponent lineup quality, player productivity, luck-driven outcomes, player roles and small samples.” It’s arguably the best metric at boiling down a player’s cumulative defensive value to one number. 

Although Thompson may be a better defender relative to his position than names above him, elite perimeter defenders very rarely match the impact of elite interior defenders. But he deserves the final spot. Thompson ranks sixth across the league in LDPS (min. 1000 minutes) and wreaks havoc due to his athleticism, length and quick hands. He’s a big reason behind why Detroit ranks second in defensive rating and first in opponent turnover percentage. 

Adebayo only ranks 11th in LDPS and does not qualify as a top-tier rim protector. However, he is one of the most versatile defenders in the NBA who can defend every position and patch any holes. Miami ranks fourth in defensive rating mainly due to Adebayo’s portability and motor. 

Holmgren ranks second in LDPS and remains one of the most effective rim protectors across the association. He perfectly times his contests and smothers opponents with his seven-foot-six wingspan. Holmgren’s ability to seamlessly fluctuate between being a help defender and anchor big gives the Thunder an immense amount of lineup flexibility. Overall, he is the best defender on one of the best defenses in NBA history. 

Gobert paces the league in LDPS. He’s a hyper-elite rim protector, but Gobert has also defended the second-most isolation possessions across the NBA and held opponents to a measly 0.84 points per isolation possession. The veteran slightly gets the nod over Holmgren because Gobert is a better defensive rebounder and is more important to his team’s defense. Oklahoma City still fields elite defenses sans Holmgren, while Minnesota collapses without Gobert. For example, the Wolves’ defense surrenders 109.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the court compared to 121.5 points per 100 possessions when he rests. 

Gobert is in the mix to win his fifth Defensive Player of the Year award, which would be an NBA record. But this will probably require Victor Wembanyama to not qualify for the award by playing less than 65 games. Voters would also have to reconcile with the fact that Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive rating. 

Wembanyama ranks third in LDPS. He would lead the NBA, but his missed games have reduced his total. San Antonio’s superstar is one of the most intimidating defenders in league history due to his eight-foot wingspan and mobility. Nobody his size should be able to move like him. Wembanyama superstar deters rim attempts at a historic rate, but he’s also capable of moving his feet on the perimeter. Plus, the Spurs rank third in defensive rating and surrender 105.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the court compared to 117.1 points per 100 possessions when he takes a breather. 

It’s worth noting that Wembanyama will be disqualified from contention if he misses three more games due to the 65-game rule.