New NBA lottery odds reshape the draft, potentially fueling the Thunder's future with coveted first-round picks from struggling rivals.
The regular season featured egregious tanking from almost a third of the league mainly because the 2026 NBA Draft is loaded with superstar talent. Many teams feel trapped without landing premier talent in the draft since it’s nearly impossible to acquire a franchise cornerstone in free agency these days and mere All-Stars are worth an unreasonable amount of first-round picks on the trade market.
For perspective on how shameless tanking was this season, the Wizards, Pacers, Jazz, Nets, Grizzlies, Bulls, Mavericks and Bucks combined for a 44-180 record after the All-Star break. But what happens if games against each other are removed? The group record drops to 16-152, which translates to a 7-75 record. Gross!
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver repeatedly said throughout the season that eliminating tanking was his top priority, and the NBA’s new lottery reform proposal should do the trick. It incentivizes teams at the bottom to win games because of the lottery odds breakdown. Here’s a nice visual of how the odds to land the first overall pick have changed through the decades, courtesy of Sportico’s Lev Akabas:
Teams stuck in the middle would be just as or more likely than teams at the bottom to land the first overall pick. It’s worth noting that the bottom-three teams can only fall to the 12th overall pick, while everyone else in the lottery has a floor of the 16th overall pick.
Sam Presti notably criticized the previous flattening of the odds that began in 2019, and it’s likely that he does not agree with this new proposal. However, the format undeniably helps Oklahoma City in the near future because the champs can swap first-round picks with the Clippers in 2027 and the Mavericks in 2028.
Los Angeles had the 12th-worst record this season despite Kawhi Leonard playing 65 games at an All-NBA level. The Clippers probably own a play-in ceiling next season and may even miss the tournament entirely. Under the new format, Oklahoma City would receive either a 5.4% or 8.1% chance to subsequently win the first overall pick.
Dallas has Cooper Flagg, a soon-to-be-healthy Kyrie Irving, a veteran roster and a potentially great 2026 first-round pick. But the West is strong and deep, so the Mavericks may be a play-in team and therefore give the Thunder a 2.7% or 5.4% chance at the first overall pick.
Oklahoma City also owns Denver’s first-round pick in 2027 and 2029, although both are top-five protected.
Overall, the anti-tanking proposal may lead to severe unintended consequences that shakes the competitive landscape, but it would probably increase the Thunder’s chances of landing juicy picks over the next few NBA Drafts.