A knee hyperextension sidelines Denver's star, shaking up MVP odds and potentially derailing playoff seeding for a championship contender.
Nikola Jokić suffered a knee injury that could have been catastrophic if it damaged his ACL, but he fortunately avoided this scenario. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Jokić “has been diagnosed with a hyperextension in his left knee and will miss at least four weeks.”
It’s excellent news for basketball fans across the globe because nobody wants to see injuries happen, especially ones that alter careers. Although Denver must be thrilled about the news, its immediate future is grim.
Jokić is averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds and 11 assists per game while leading the league in true shooting percentage. Denver has outscored opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions with Jokić on the court, while opponents have outscored Denver by 8.3 points per 100 possessions when he rests.
Jamal Murray deserves his flowers and should make his first All-Star team, but Jokić has absolutely carried a Nuggets squad that has been dealing with long-term injuries to Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun.
Given the stated timeline, Feb. 1 seems to be around the earliest return date for Jokić. That’s 18 games missed, so the Nuggets probably plummet down the standings to the play-in tournament and wind up well behind the sixth seed.
If this is the case, then Denver will have roughly 30 games remaining to claw itself back into the playoffs. But securing the second or third seed is now a pipe dream. The Nuggets’ range of outcomes has become somewhere between the fourth and seventh seeds.
Given that Oklahoma City wants to delay the matchup as long as possible in hopes that another West team eliminates the Nuggets, Thunder fans should be rooting for Denver to finish with the sixth or seventh seed.
Meanwhile, Jokić missing the next 18 games would give him a maximum of 64 games played this season. A player must play at least 65 games to qualify for MVP, so this injury may disqualify Jokić and subsequently make Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the heavy favorite to win.
What about the other usual suspects, though? Jayson Tatum is out with a torn Achilles, while Giannis Antetokounmpo’s missed games and poor record eliminate him from serious discussions. Victor Wembanyama has also already missed 12 games, so he may not qualify.
One true threat remains – Luka Dončić. He leads the NBA in points per game and averages in the neighborhood of a triple-double. Los Angeles is also 20-10 and currently occupies the fifth seed. However, Gilgeous-Alexander laps Dončić in efficiency, defense and record. Gilgeous-Alexander also scores more points per 75 possessions.
Overall, Jokić’s injury drastically changes the MVP race and could impact whether Oklahoma City faces Denver in the second round or conference finals.