Math determines Holmgren's All-Star fate. Weigh his elite scoring, defensive prowess, and team success against fierce Western Conference competition.
Now that the formality of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being named a 2026 NBA All-Star starter has come and gone, there is one All-Star question remaining on the mind of Thunder fans.
Will Chet Holmgren become a first time All-Star this season?
The answer to that query boils down to math. One dozen players from each conference will be chosen as honorees. We already know five of those names. So let's get out our basketball calculators.
The Western Conference starters are Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić, Steph Curry, Luka Dončić and Victor Wembanyama. That's five down.
The seven reserves for each conference will be announced on February 1. And while things could change between now and the flipping of the calendar month, there certainly appear to be a few near locks. Despite the fact that many hoops talking heads, OKC fans and the author of this RoundTable story believe Holmgren should be in the "lock" category, the unfortunate reality is that is not the general consensus.
The Western Conference reserves who are considered locks are Anthony Edwards, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray. That's four more down for a grand total of nine players already tabbed as All-Stars. The spots are shrinking quickly.
According to our All-Star math, that leaves us with a grand total of three more reserves. Let's take a look at the pool of qualified candidates and the case for each nominee.
Chet Holmgren. The case for Holmgren is that he is the second best player on the NBA's best team, he scores an incredibly efficient 18 points per night and he's the current betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year.
Alperen Şengün. The case for Şengün is that he made the All-Star team last year and has even slightly better numbers this season.
Deni Avdija. The case for Avdija is that he is averaging an efficient 26 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists per night and is the best player for one of the most surprising teams in the NBA this season.
Devin Booker. The case for Booker is that his team lost Kevin Durant and was expected to be competing for lottery ping pong balls and he's led a Suns resurgence to what looks like a playoff lock.
James Harden. The case for Harden is that after a brutal start in the win/loss column, he has put up big numbers and helped lead the Clippers from handing OKC a top 3 pick to the play-in bracket.
Julius Randle. The case for Randle is that, honestly, I don't know, you'll have to ask Bill Simmons why he had the #7 seed in the West's second best player listed on his ballot.
Lauri Markkanen. The case for Markkanen starts and stops at his averaging 28 points per game, good for 9th best in the NBA.
LeBron James. The case for James is that he is LeBron James.
If I had to call my shot right this moment, I'd say that Chet Holmgren will become a first time All-Star this season. It's going to be a close race, but coaches tend to reward winning. And the 7'1" unicorn is the second biggest reason why OKC has the best record in the league.